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2018 Crystal Ball Predictions

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com, Let’s have some fun with predictions shall we? I even brought my crystal ball and magic sparkly chest hair ready to muse about the known unknowns and unknown unknowns. What are those? Here’s a primer: “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know […]


UMich Confidence Tumbles – Economic Conditions Hit 14-Month Low

After surging to 14-year highs mid-2017, UMich sentiment survey has slide notably (to the lowest since July). Despite tax cuts and stock market exuberance, current conditions plunged to its lowest since the Nov 2016 election.   Inflation expectations ticked up (both short- and long-term). Tax reform was spontaneously mentioned by 34% of all respondents; 70% […]


Russian Military Pulls Out Of Syrian Kurdish Town As Turkey Initiates “Massive Cross-Border Attack”

Turkey’s defense minister has confirmed the Turkish military has begun cross-border shelling of the Syrian Kurdish enclave of Afrin in what he further describes as the “de facto start” of the operation in order to destroy – in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s words – Kurdish “terror nests” – and which has been dubbed previously by Turkey […]


Trump Vows To Stay In DC Until Shutdown Averted As GOP Scrambles To Pass Stopgap Bill

A weekend government shutdown is looking more likely by the minute as the GOP’s senate leadership scrambles to entice Democrats into supporting a stopgap spending bill that would keep the government open until Feb. 16. The White House just announced that President Trump will remain in Washington until a shutdown is averted. He was supposed […]


Stocks Suffer As 10Y Yields Reach 2014 Highs, Curve At Inflection Point

Overnight saw 10Y Treasury yields touch 2.64%, topping the post-election peak to its highest since September 2014 (and crossing Jeff Gundlach’s “red line” for stock damage). However, the yield curve’s bear-steepening may suggest a turning point. 10Y is up almost 30bps since The Fed hiked rates in December…   Highest 10Y since Sept 2014…   […]


Frontrunning: January 19

Budget Showdown Looms in Senate; Blame Game Begins (WSJ) Empty prisons, grounded warplanes: Budget dysfunction hits home (Reuters) U.S. Government Nears Shutdown With GOP Stopgap Bill at the Brink (BBG) Shutdown threat prompts warnings to workers (Reuters) Fed Working on Proposal to Ease Up on Bank Leverage Limits (BBG) Williams has Fed vice-chair job in […]