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Pending Home Sales Beat, But Sales In The West Continue To Slide

New-, Existing-, and now Pending-Home Sales all beat expectations in November. Pending sales just printed a surprise 0.2% gain (against expectations of a 0.4% drop) with a surge in Northeast offsetting a second monthly decline in sales in The West. Notably, pending home sales in The West are down 2.3% YoY – the 10th monthly […]


US Retail Sales Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2012 As Online Sales Soar

Despite a fourth monthly decline in real earnings, the good ol’ American consumer is doing what she does best – consume. Retail sales surged 0.8% MoM (much better than expected) and 5.8% YoY – the best since March 2012. Data beat across the board… except motor vehicles and parts dealers – everything else is surging. […]


Meanwhile, South Korean Industrial Production Crashes

With South Korean stocks soaring in the face of nukes from their northern neighbor and a credit-crunching China, it appears the South Korean economy just caught down to reality… South Korean Industrial Production crashed 5.9% YoY in October – the biggest plunge since Feb 2013 – driven by a 17.5% collapse in auto production. Economists […]


New Home Sales Smash Expectations: Spike To 10 Year Highs As Average Price Tops $400k For First Time

Following the bounce in exisitng home sales (albeit lower YoY), new home sales ripped back higher in October (up 6.2% vs expectations of a 6.1% drop) following a big downward revision of last month's manic spike. This is the highest print for new home sales since Nov 2007. The 6.2% surge is a six standard […]


Existing Home Sales Drop Year-Over-Year For 2nd Straight Month – First Time Since 2014

Following September's positive housing data rebound, October data is starting well with existing home sales surging 2.0% MoM (better than expected 0.2%) to 5.48mm SAAR, as US existing home sales inventory tumbled 10.4% YoY, to 1.8 months, the lowest since 1999. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to a four-month high, indicating demand was […]


Housing Starts, Permits Rebound In October After Storm-Soaked September

Following September's storm-driven tumble, October has seen a big rebound in Housing Starts (+13.7% MoM) and Permits (+5.9% MoM) both beating expectations, as multi-family starts explode. Housing starts printed above all analysts' guesses (4 standard deviations above expectations) for the biggest monthly jump in a year.   The surge in starts was driven by a […]


Producer Prices Surge At Fastest Rate In Almost 6 Years

Following September's hotter-than-expected Core PPI (and 5Y high in PPI), October was expected to see a modest slowdown but headline PPI printed a massive 2.8% YoY (smashing the 2.4% exp). This is the hottest PPI since Jan 2012,  driven by surges in fuel prices and drugs.   Core PPI also beat expectations, rising 2.4% YoY […]


Chinese Stocks Slide As Economic Slowdown Accelerates

Being the first data following The National Congress, we are expecting little in the way of disappointment from China's macro data. However, the slowdown in credit supply has been well telegraphed, and sure enough the data was not pretty with FAI growth at its weakest in 17 years, Retail Sales and Industrial Production both disappoint. […]


Are The Rich Panicking?

European elites are hoarding cash, the Japanese are stuffing safes full of high-denomination bills, the saudis are scrambling, and judging from the following chart, the richest Americans are getting increasingly concerned about the safety of their wealth… For a decade, Security & Armored Car Services workers in the US have earned around $14 to $15 […]


Bank Stocks, Dollar Slide Hit By Fresh Tax Reform Doubts

U.S. equity futures are little changed as European and Asian shares retreated, led by sliding bank stocks and a drop in the dollar as doubts over republican tax cuts and ongoing bond curve flattening hurt sentiment and prompted fresh questions over the viability of the US expansion. Investor concerns also returned to geopolitics as Trump […]


Pending Home Sales Plunge In September To Lowest Since Jan 2015

Following September's modest bounce in exisitng home sales, and explosion in new home sales (biggest jump in 25 years), today's pending home sales was a huge disappointment, blowing the bounce back narrative. Pending Home Sales tumbled 5.4% YoY to its lowest since Jan 2015… Take your pick – is the housing 'recovery' good, bad, or […]


Mexican Peso Spikes On Banxico Headlines After Worst Retail Sales Drop In 4 Years

Against expectations of a 0.5% rise year-over-year, Mexican retail sales tumbled 0.2% YoY – the biggest drop since Oct 2013. However, the peso is spiking as soon as this data hit, Banxico stated it would increase its FX hedging program by $4 billion. From bad to worse…   But The Central Bank beats dismal data… […]


Blood In The Streets? Storm-Savaged September Sees Home Sales Surge

Tumbling starts and permits data, and dismal new, pending, and existing home sales in August urged a rebound in September and existing home sales (amid massive storms) somehow managed to surge 0.7% MoM (smashing expectations of a 0.9% tumble). Sales in the South remain low, likely due to effects of Hurricane Harvey and Irma. Inventories […]


Yield Curve Inverts, Yuan Slides As China GDP Growth Slows

Despite all the talk of deleveraging, China did anything but according to its most recent data but the lagged impact of the tumbling credit impulse is starting to show up in the broader macro data. Despite the National Congress being under way (and recent credit spikes and positive PBOC hints) GDP growth limped lower to […]


Import & Export Prices Jump As Fuel Costs Spike

Both import and export prices beat expectations in September rising 2.7% and 2.9% YoY respectively. Petroelum import costs soared 4.5% MoM (and up 20.1% YoY) and Industrial Supplies export prices jumped 3.0% MoM driving the resurgence in import and export prices. Import prices from China continue their deflationary trend…   Ordinarily, as Bloomberg notes, a […]