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The Treasury Yield Curve Is Crashing Most Since Brexit

Remember the post-tax-reform, pre-Christmas spike in yields and the yield curve? Yeah, that's all over now!!!! Treasury yields are down 4 days in a row with a major collapse occurring today as the long-end plunges over 8bps – the most in 3 months. The 2s30s yield curve is down over 8bps – the biggest-single-day flattening […]


Is This The Most Important Chart In The World?

"This is possibly the most important chart in the world…" As 13D Global Strategy and Research noted: A breach of the top-line of the channel could signal a major reversal in the multi-decade downtrend in UST bond yields." So the question is – is an event engineered to slam rates lower, in order to avoid […]


Citi: ‘What If?…”

One month ago, Citi’s credit team laid out its outlook for the coming year in what – in our opinion – was one of the gloomiest reports for the coming year, and included the following fascinating revelation according to which central bankers appears to have lost control: “That seems to be a growing fear among […]


Yield Curve Steepens At Fastest Pace Since 2008, Bonds Cheapest To Stocks In 7 Years

On the heels of near-record long speculative positioning, the long-end of the US Treasury yield curve continues to carnage, with yields at their highest since November's FOMC levels. The yield curve is steepening drastically – up 16bps in 3 days (the biggest percentage surge since Dec 2008).   30Y yield surging…   The yield curve […]


The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate […]


Are Bonds Really On The Run? Why One Trader Is Skeptical

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader. So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen’s FX strategist, […]


Small Caps Slammed And Bonds Bloodbath As Tax-Hopers “Sell The News”

Sometimes better not to play at all…   Bonds & Stocks both slammed lower today – the worst combined day since 11/9/16…   Trannies ended the day higher but the rest of the major US equity indices "sold the news"…Small Caps worst…   Futures show the excitement better over the last two days (not the […]


One Angry Trader Rages…”Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong…Go Wrong…Go Wrong”

As stocks do things they have never done before (in terms of gains and complacency), despite the "inexplicable" collapse in the yield curve (and slump in earnigs expectations), some, like former fund manager Richard Breslow, are growing frustrated with the farce. 2017 is on track to be the first 'perfect year' with 12 consecutive monthly […]


Bank Of America: “This Is A Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is “paradox“, as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees. A “paradox” was on full display in […]


“They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction”: One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

With many expecting long-yield to continue declining no matter what, and how many hikes, the Fed and central banks do on the short end, Tommi Utoslahti, a former derivatives trader and analyst and currently one of Bloomberg’s Global Macro squawkers, disagrees and as he writes in his latest Markets Live note below, expects a violent […]


There’s Never Been A Worse Time For A European Investor To Buy US Treasuries

Since the common currency's inception in 1999, the EUR-hedged yield 'offered' to European investors from investing in US Treasuries has never been worse… As Bloomberg notes, for European investors using swaps to protect against currency swings, the benchmark 10-year U.S. yield fell Friday on a euro-hedged basis to around -60bps. In other words, it costs […]


US Yield Curve Crashes Most In 6 Years As Stocks, Bitcoin Hit Record Highs

What could go wrong?   Small Caps exploded higher today, driven by financials, presumably on tax reform hype.. but after Bob Corker said "yes" there was some notable "sell the news"… Notably, as soon as the cash market closed, futures ripped to the highs of the day…   On the week, Nasdaq (green) and Dow […]


Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]


The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Stoccks are at record highs on the basis that Marco Rubio might a 'yes' and John McCain will make it through the weekend… but if everything is so awesome, why is the yield curve collapsing? This is the 5th weekly plunge in the yield curve in a row – the longest streak since March 2016 […]


TINA’s Dead – US Equities Are No Longer ‘Cheap’ To Bonds

For almost 7 years, asset-gatherers and commission-takers have exclaimed "There Is No Alternative" to stocks, given how low interest rates are. However, given the recent buying-panic in stocks, TINA is now dead BAB is back (Bonds Are Better)… In a sign the U.S. equity rally may be looking stretched, Bloomberg notes that the forward dividend yield […]