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The 5 Oil Factors To Watch In 2018

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, Oil prices are set to close out the year somewhere around 15 percent up, and the oil market looks more stable than it has in years. But what does 2018 have in store? Most analysts believe more of the same – inventory declines, some shale growth, a gradual increase […]


The Great Oil Swindle

Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com, … is leading us to destruction. When it comes to the story we're being told about America's rosy oil prospects, we're being swindled.  At its core, the swindle is this: The shale industry's oil production forecasts are vastly overstated. Swindle:  Noun  – A fraudulent scheme or action. And the swindle […]


WTI/RBOB Steady Despite Huge Gasoline Build, New Crude Production Record

Despite last night's surprisingly large API-reported crude draw, WTI/RBOB prices were sliding in early trading but as the DOE data printed prices stabilized despite a smaller crude draw than API and a much bigger gasoline builds than expected. Production surged on the week to a new record high. Bloomberg's Mitch Martin noted that the Brent […]


OPEC Reports Lowest Oil Output In Six Months; Fears Shale Production Surge

True to its perpetually optimistic form, OPEC, which last month for the first time conceded the threat posed by rising US shale production… … sharply raised its demand forecast for cartel oil in 2018, ahead of the OPEC meeting at the end of November. And, according to OPEC's latest market report for the month of […]


Is $40 WTI Now More Realistic Than $60?

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, The current rise in oil prices is more of a fear trade right now, driven by fear of what is going on in the Middle East, rather than a result of growing OPEC chatter or inventory reports, Todd Horwitz, chief strategist at Bubbatrading.com, told Bloomberg on Wednesday. “The oil […]


WTI Tops $57 After Biggest Crude Draw In 3 Months

WTI/RBOB bounced today in anticipation of a reversal of the last two week's builds in crude inventories, and bulls were not disappointed by the API print.  Jan '18 WTI pushed above $57 but RBOB fell after a big crude draw (though gasoline build). “It looks like we are going to get a draw in crude […]


US Oil Rig Count Surges Most In 5 Months

Tracking the lagged rebound in WTI prices, the US oil rig count rose by 9 this week – the biggest weekly rise since June.     And with production at record highs, we suspect OPEC will need to jawbone some more…   And total US Crude output just hit a new record high… http://WarMachines.com


Satellite Images Reveal Saudis May Be Lying How Much Oil They Have In Storage

A little over a year ago, specialized satellite imaging company Orbital Insight which uses its proprietary imaging and algorithms to track above-ground oil storage, confirmed something we had alleged earlier in the year: that China was vastly under-representing the amount of oil it had stored in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (with significant implications for prices). […]


‘Take That OPEC’ – WTI Slides As US Crude Production Jumps To Record High

WTI/RBOB extended losses post-API data overnight, but DOE data sparked some algo chaos as a surprise crude build (+2.24mm vs -2.45mm exp) was offset by a bigger than expected gasoline draw (exactly opposite what API reported). In addition, US crude production jumped to a new all-time high – take that OPEC!   API Crude -1.562mm […]


WTI/RBOB Drop After Surprise Gasoline Build

WTI held above $57 heading into the API print on the heels of Saudi chaos but both WTI/RBOB kneejerked lower after API reported a lower than expected crude draw and a surprise gasoline build.   API Crude -1.562mm (-2.45mm exp) Cushing +812k Gasoline +520k (-1.85mm exp) Distilates-3.133mm Following the previous week's big gasoline draw and […]


“A Classic Head Fake”: Why One Trader Is Using The Saudi Turmoil To Sell Crude

Overnight, following the recent Saudi turmoil, prices in the crude complex jumped to the highest levels in over two years, amid speculation that Saudi Arabia is more likely to back output curbs following this weekend’s crackdown by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “It creates some hope that the current policy by the Saudis will be […]


WTI/RBOB Sink As Inventory Draws Disappoint

WTI/RBOB held on to gains overnight following major draws reported by API and more OPEC jawboning (this time from UAE), but the DOE data disappointed compared to API's huge draws with Crude and Gasoline drawing down but considerably less than API reported (and Distillates barely drawing down at all). Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Fernando Valle: […]


Mexico’s “Legendary” Oil Hedging Desk Spent $1.25 Billion On 2018 Puts

Mexico’s "legendary" oil hedgers (profiled her emost recently one year ago and by Bloomberg in this exhaustive article) are confident that prices won’t linger above $50 a barrel, because this summer, which is why the world’s most-active sovereign oil-trading desk spent a near record $1.25 billion on put options to lock in export prices for […]


Hedgies Have Never Been ‘Longer’ The Energy Complex As Analysts Raise Oil Price Forecasts (Again)

With WTI prices holding at 6-month highs around $54 (and Brent at $60), Reuters' John Kemp notes that hedge funds have never, ever been more bullishly positioned in the entire energy complex. Hedge Funds have accumulated a record 1.189 billion bbl of long positions in the five major petroleum contracts (Brent, WTI (x2), RBOB, HO)… […]