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Where European Populism Will Be Strongest In 2018

While the establishment may breathe a sigh of relief looking back at political developments and events in Europe – which was spared some of the supposedly “worst-case scenarios” including a Marine le Pen presidency, a Merkel loss and a Geert Wilders victory – in 2017, any victory laps will have to be indefinitely postponed because […]

Tory Power Base Takes Another Hit After Theresa May’s Right Hand Man Fired Over Pornography

Tory (lack of) power-base takes another hit. The UK prime minister’s right hand man Damian Green has been fired from his post based on the allegations over pornography usage. In an ongoing saga Damian Green was “asked to quit” after he made “inaccurate and misleading” statements over what he knew about claims pornography was found […]

“They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction”: One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

With many expecting long-yield to continue declining no matter what, and how many hikes, the Fed and central banks do on the short end, Tommi Utoslahti, a former derivatives trader and analyst and currently one of Bloomberg’s Global Macro squawkers, disagrees and as he writes in his latest Markets Live note below, expects a violent […]

Who Ya Gonna Fight? Landmark Treaty Signed To Create EU Army

EU leaders formerly endorsed the harmless sounding Permanent Structured Cooperation, or PESCO, pact on Thursday evening in Brussels. After the shock of Brexit, the goal of defence integration was revived by former military foes, Germany and France, supported by Italy and Spain, in a show of EU unity. A similar proposal was blocked by the […]

BoE Preview: “Should Be A Non-Event”

As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the BoE meeting due in minutes, should be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature. Here is some more courtesy of […]

Polexit Threat: EU Increasingly Upset About Poland Ignoring Rules

Authored by Mike Shedlock via www.themaven.net/mishtalk, The Polish government increasingly defies EU rules. Since Poland is the largest aid recipient, the EU is hopping mad.  Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic are all in open defiance of EU migration rules. In addition, Poland's Law & Justice party move to take control of the courts was […]

Pound Slides: Traders “Sell The News” As Full Brexit Complexity Re-Emerges

As we jokingly mocked the sterling-trading algos yesterday ahead of today’s “big” Phase 1 Brexit announcement, the market had gotten too far ahead of itself in its exuberance that today’s announcement was the final Brexit catalyst, when in reality it only sets the stage for the far more complex, trade-focused Phase II. As a result, […]

UK And EU Reach Agreement Taking Brexit Talks To “Phase 2” As Irish Border Questions Linger

Early on Friday morning, the EU and UK negotiated a deal allowing Brexit negotiations to move on to the "Phase 2", which will establish their future trading relationship. The European Commission said it recommends to the European Council to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations […]

Cable Spikes After European Court Of Justice Agreement

The chaotic trading in cable continues, this time spiking to the upside after Bloomberg reports that the EU and U.K. have reached an agreement on the sensitive issue of the role of the European Court of Justice after Brexit, according to two people familiar with the matter. The agreement on the court leaves the Irish […]

Pound Tumbles Amid Brexit Chaos, “Headline Havoc”

Cable traders are suffering through a news overload this morning, with the optimism and euphoria which sent the pound to two month highs as recently as 2 days ago fading fast on speculation whether UK PM Theresa May will be able to engineer a Brexit breakthrough in time. And following overnight speculation that her cabinet […]

EU Agrees On Financial Settlement With The UK On Future Committments, Formula For “Brexit Divorce Bill”

Confirming reports from earlier in the week that the EU and UK have agreed on a financial settment for outstanding obligations as well as a formula for calculating the Brexit “divorce” bill, Reuters is out with the following headlines: EUROPEAN UNION HAS AGREED A FINANCIAL SETTLEMENT WITH BRITAIN ON FUTURE COMMITMENTS – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL […]

Sterling Soars After Britain, EU Agree On Brexit Divorce Bill: Telegraph

The Telegraph is reporting that British and EU negotiators have reached a deal over the so-called ‘Brexit bill’, opening the door to a potential breakthrough in the talks this December.  According to the report, that the final figure, which is deliberately being left open to interpretation, “will be between €45bn and €55bn, depending on how […]

Cable Crumbles After Government Denies Telegraph Report On Brexit Divorce Bill Agreement

Update: That did not last long. Shortly after The Telegraph report hit the wires, AP reports that Brexit talks between the UK and European Union are continuing as officials played down suggestions that a deal has been reached on the so-called divorce bill.  Reports suggested an agreement in principle has been reached which would see […]

Pound Slides, Then Rebounds, After Hammond Reveals Sharp Cuts To UK GDP Forecast

Update: after the GBP initially dropped on the lower GDP forecasts, it has since rallied after Hammond finished speaking , in what Citi said was a “relief rally” as there were no “banana skins and government safe. Relief trade here.” This was a risk event – while Budget Announcements are normally quite quiet affairs in […]

Ignore Merkel And Brexit: According To Bill Blain, A New Threat Can Bring Europe Crashing Down

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners Europe is like a 4D game of Jenga, and Germany is a very wobbly block – as are the banks Europe is an enormous 4 dimensional game of Jenga.  At the moment there are far too many blocks in play. Some of them are likely […]