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Bad Santa Buys Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin; Rotten Apple Spoils Promised Stock Rally

This was not teh Santa Claus rally that everyone was promised…   All thanks to 'rotten' Apple… as analysts lowered iPhone X shipment projections for the first quarter of next year, citing signs of lackluster demand at the end of the holiday shopping season, and the company’s shares fell Tuesday along with those of some […]


WTI/RBOB Higher After Surprisingly Large Crude Draw

WTI/RBOB tumbled today after fears about cracks in one of the world's most important oil pipelines faded. Prices were below last week's pre-API levels as hope was high that last week's big surprise product build was a fluke but once again we saw notable product builds, but prices popped higher as a 7.382mm crude draw […]


WTI Unable To Hold Gains Despite Russia, Saudi Jawboning

WTI Crude algos ran stos this morning to pre-API levels on the heels of Russian and Saudi comments, but those gains are fading fast as the machines run out of ammo. API's surprise crude build sparked overnight selling… But this morning's ramp after Saudi/Russia jawboning is fading fast. Russia seemed to confirm its agreement: *RUSSIA […]


Is $40 WTI Now More Realistic Than $60?

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, The current rise in oil prices is more of a fear trade right now, driven by fear of what is going on in the Middle East, rather than a result of growing OPEC chatter or inventory reports, Todd Horwitz, chief strategist at Bubbatrading.com, told Bloomberg on Wednesday. “The oil […]


WTI/RBOB Slide After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw, New Record High Production

With WTI at its highest since July 2015, vol at 8mo lows, and the front-end flipped into backwardation for the first time since Nov 2014, it appears a lot of hope is priced into continued equlilibration (and OPEC). Last night's API (crude draw) provided some more confirmation but this morning's DOE data disappointed with a […]


Oil Jumps To $56, Highest Since July 2015 On Saudi Turmoil, Venezuela Default

With the launch of electronic trading, WTI crude has jumped from the highest close since July 2015 amid Saudi turmoil which over the weekend included a crackdown on 11 Saudi princes – including billionaire Alwaleed – and dozens of current and former ministers as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, i.e. MbS, who’s backed policy […]


Stocks Shrug At Trump Tax Plan As VIX Collapses To Record Low

The Rick Astley Market will never let you down…   It's Payrolls Friday – so stocks rallied!!   S&P, Dow up for the 8th straight week (longest streak since Nov 2013), Nasdaq 6th straight weekly gains, but Small Caps ended the week lower (for the 2nd week in a row) with the worst week in […]


WTI Jumps Despite Surprise Inventory Build, Production Rebound

Following last night's (API-reported) big product draws (and crude build), WTI slid lower (RBOB higher) into this morning's DOE data, but both WTI/RBOB prices jumped after the report showed major product draws (and a Cushing destocking). WTI rallied despite a big surprise build (+856k vs -3mm exp) and a major rebound in production after Hurricane […]


WTI/RBOB Jump After Big Crude Inventory Draw, Exports Hit Record High

WTI/RBOB prices recovered from their drop after API reported a big surprise gasoline build overnight ahead of the DOE data which showed a major crude draw (and smaller than API-reported build in gasoline). Along with no change in production, this sparked buying in both WTI/RBOB as the kneejerk reaction.   API Crude -4.079mm (-500k exp) […]


Techs Wrecked, Financials Falter As Korean Threats Spark Gold Gains

Well that all escalated rather quickly… Brent spiking (Kurds and Korea), Gold spiking (Korea), AAPL tumble (weak orders), FANG bloodbath… large into small and growth into value. The day's broad activity was driven by North Korean headlines which sparked a bid for gold (and early anxiety over Europe after Germany's election)…   Gold regains the […]


WTI Crude Fails At $50 Again As Rig Count Tumbles Most In 8 Months

As Texas slowly normalizes from Hurricane Harvey's impact, production has rebounded but the rig count continues to tumble (down 7 to 749 this week). This is the biggest weekly drop in oil rigs since Jan 2017 and June 2016. WTI Crude futures have once again tested $50 (and failed) this morning. This is the 5th […]


Bitcoin Bloodbaths, Tech Stocks Tumble After Dismal China Data, Korea Concerns

Dismal China data, 3 North Korea "prepping missiles" headlines and a North Korean "threat" headline – probably nothing…   Chinese economic data plunged overnight – the biggest disappointment to market expectations in 6 months…   Of course, US equity traders bought the fucking dip at the open into the European close, but were disappointed that […]


WTI Crude Tops $50, Breaks Above Key Technical Level

For the first time since August 10th, WTI crude is trading back above $50 (following the biggest crude inventory build in 6 months and a rebound in production last week). The gains seem driven by refinery restarts and increased IEA/OPEC demand forecasts, and improved OPEC production cut compliance. This move also follows China’s lowest crude […]


Crude Is Getting Slammed After China Headlines

WTI crude is suddenly tumbling. While it's unclear of the specific catalyst (storms outweighing most other events), desk chatter suggests it is due to a story in The FT that China is striving to reduce capacity of its 'teapot' oil refineries – thus cutting demand notably. Beijing’s push to use crude import quotas and licences […]


WTI Pops, RBOB Drops As Refiners/Pipelines Restart, Irma Looms

WTI crude prices are testing above $48 this morning (and RBOB prices tumbling) as refiners and pipelines come back on line faster than expected and fears of Hurricane Irma's path impacting Gulf production edge higher. As Goldman notes, the recovery from Hurricane Harvey has accelerated over the weekend, with prolonged dry weather helping the decline […]