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Is California Already In Recession?

By Political Calculations When it comes to the health of his state's economy, California Governor Jerry Brown has been walking on eggshells this year. Twice each year, once in January and again in May, Gov. Jerry Brown warns Californians that the economic prosperity their state has enjoyed in recent years won't last forever.   Brown […]


Some Ex-Cons Are Finally Finding Jobs: But Does The Fed Care?

While CNN doesn’t dedicate much time to covering the subject, we’ve repeatedly pointed out that, contrary to what conventional wisdom might lead one to believe, incarceration rates among white Americans have risen since 2000 while incarceration rates for minorities have fallen. The US prison population is finally shrinking after swelling to more than 2 million […]


David Stockman Lashes Out At Mainstream Media’s “Peak Fantasy Time”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, If you want to know why both Wall Street and Washington are so delusional about America's baleful economic predicament, just consider this morsel from yesterday's Wall Street Journal on the purportedly awesome November jobs report. Wages rose just 2.5% from a year earlier in November – near the same lackluster […]


Goldman: “Short-Term Unemployment Is At Levels Not Seen Outside Of Major Wartime Mobilizations”

When it comes to the US labor market, it’s a tale of two extremes according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs. At one end, the rate of short-term unemployment, defined as those unemployed fewer than 15 weeks, is lower than at any point since the Korean War and is already 0.4% below the bottom […]


Goldman Raises December Rate Hike Odds To 80%

Having pointed out a glaring error in today’s payrolls report, which indicated that there was at least one math error in calculating the average hourly earnings number, and as a result casts doubt on every other piece of data released by the BLS, we urge algos and the handful of carbon-based traders, to take anything […]


BLS Caught Fabricating Wage Data

While it’s not the first time we have observed the BLS manipulate data (the last time was in “This Is What Happens When The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Is Caught In A Lie“), never before had we actually caught the Bureau Of Labor Statistics openly fabricating data. Until now. As reported earlier today, in one […]


Paul Craig Roberts Warns Americans: “Oligarchic Rule Prevails Regardless Of Electoral Outcomes”

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts, Do the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page editors read their own newspaper? The frontpage headline story for the Labor Day weekend was “Low Wage Growth Challenges Fed.” Despite an alleged 4.4% unemployment rate, which is full employment, there is no real growth in wages. The front page story pointed out […]


US Workers’ Wage Expectations Unexpectedly Collapse

Cue the latest economic (and Phillips curve) paradox. On one hand, the US unemployment rate is at a 16 year low of 4.4%, suggesting little if any slack in the US economy, and according to anecdotes from both the Fed’s Beige Book and industry sources, labor shortages are so acute that – if one believes […]


“It Is A Battle Between Data And Theory” – Fed PhDs Second-Guess Inflation Model After 5 Years Of Failure

Federal Reserve officials are finally waking up to the fact that there’s something wrong with their inflation models. It only took them five years. As Bloomberg points out, the minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, released yesterday, included a debate about whether the models that help the central bank set its inflation target are […]