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Taxes, Balance Of Payments, & The USDollar Paradox

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, Investors were finally treated yesterday to some of the most important compromise provisions to come out of the House-Senate conference on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Among them were: 21% corporate rate Reduction of the top wage rate to 37% 20% deduction on pass-through income […]


Frontrunning: December 18

Bitcoin Takes Bigger Wall Street Stage With Smooth CME Debut (BBG) Trump targets China and Russia on national security (Reuters) Panthers owner to sell team amid misconduct allegations (Reuters) Prosecutors Treat Opioid Overdoses as Homicides, Snagging Friends, Relatives (WSJ) U.S. taxpayers rush to claim deductions under threat from tax bill (Reuters) This One Weird Tax […]


The New Great Game Moves From Asia-Pacific To Indo-Pacific

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times, Is the world's center of gravity shifting to the heart of the Indo-Pacific – a new pivot to Asia? In the context of the New Great Game in Eurasia, the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), integrates all of China’s instruments of […]


US Trade Deficit Surges Near Five Year High Despite Sliding Dollar

The US trade balance surprisingly blew out in October, increasing from $44.9 billion to $48.7 billion, as unexpectedly exports decreased and imports increased despite the ongoing dollar weakness, missing estimates of $47.5 billion. October’s number was tied for the widest deficit going back to early 2012… … and marks a stark divergence with the recent […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


US-China Economic Dialogue Has “Stalled; No Plans To Revive Talks”: Malpass

At the start of the year, one of the often repeated risk factors was that a trade war between China and the US could break out due to Trump’s hardline stance on the US trade deficit with Beijing. Since then, such fears have largely faded as the status quo re-established itself, and trade between the […]


JPMorgan’s Outlook For 2018: “Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019…”

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, “rationally exuberant“, with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows… Bank of Montreal, Brian Belski, 2,950, EPS $145.00, P/E 20.3x UBS, […]


FX Weekly Preview: EUR Bursts Higher Again As Year-End Call For 1.2000 Return

Submitted by By Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA of FXdailyterminal.com At the very start of the year, we recall the chorus of projections for EUR/USD to fall below parity, warranted by the euphoria over the Trump administration’s plans for a tax overhaul alongside the reform plans for healthcare, and allied to the assumption that […]


China Slashes Import Tariffs on Consumer Goods In Boost For Trump And Western Exporters

China announced it is slashing import tariffs on 187 consumer products starting next month. The Finance Ministry pointed to the cuts being concentrated in products in short supply domestically which, it believes, will prompt local producers to improve quality. The items in the list which, includes baby formula, diapers, electric toothbrushes, medicines, cosmetics, coffee machines […]


FX Weekly Preview: EUR Darts Back To Uptrend, But Can It Last

Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA of fxdailyterminal.com The key move in the FX majors last week as the upturn in EUR/USD, where the first key area of support on the downside at 1.1500-1.1625 held well to generate the move up into the mid-upper 1.1800's.  In the previous week we also asked whether […]


TPP Moving Ahead Without US As Trump Fooled By “Warm” Welcome In Asia

In his speech (see here) at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC) on Friday, Trump slammed China, the WTO and his predecessor’s Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement as issues holding back his America-first “Indo-Pacific dream”. Without referencing it specifically, Trump criticised the TPP which he said would “tie our hands, surrender our sovereignty […]


EU Uses Sleazy Negotiating Tactics To Extort More Cash In Brexit Talks

As we discussed (see here) when Brexit talks resumed this week, the EU is piling pressure on Theresa’s May’s weakened government to extort more money out of the UK in the divorce settlement – now termed “moment of clarification” in EU parlance. Despite rumours before the latest talks began, that Theresa May was prepared to […]


In APEC Speech, Trump Slams China, WTO And TPP For Holding Back His “Indo-Pacific Dream”

Trump may have sensed that he appeared too conciliatory towards President Xi and China during his visit to Beijing, and so shortly after doubling down on his parting message to China by tweeting that “I don’t blame China, I blame the incompetence of past Admins for allowing China to take advantage of the U.S. on […]


Trump Slams China For Unfair Trade But Praises XI, Blames Predecessors; Unveils $250BN In Deals

President Trump held a press conference with one of the most powerful people in the world and the event was…  underwhelming. It didn’t last long, the two stood fairly far apart at their lecterns and afterwards ignored questions from reporters (presumably in case one asked Xi about press freedoms again). In brief, we were informed […]