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Taxes, Balance Of Payments, & The USDollar Paradox

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, Investors were finally treated yesterday to some of the most important compromise provisions to come out of the House-Senate conference on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Among them were: 21% corporate rate Reduction of the top wage rate to 37% 20% deduction on pass-through income […]


FX Weekly Preview: Looking For A Rise In Vol As The Fed Finally Makes Their Move – So We Can All Move On

Submitted by Rajan Dhall MSTA and Shant Movsesian from fxdailyterminal.com In the absence of key economic data, we tend to see heightened levels of containment in the FX markets, where the heavy presence of system (algo) traders require constant direction in order to drive price action one way or the other.  We have also been […]


US Trade Deficit Surges Near Five Year High Despite Sliding Dollar

The US trade balance surprisingly blew out in October, increasing from $44.9 billion to $48.7 billion, as unexpectedly exports decreased and imports increased despite the ongoing dollar weakness, missing estimates of $47.5 billion. October’s number was tied for the widest deficit going back to early 2012… … and marks a stark divergence with the recent […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


Lira Tumbles After Zarrab Confirms Erdogan Approved “Secret Iran Gold” Trade

In somewhat of a worst-case scenario, Turkish-Iranian gold trader Reza Zarrab just confirmed that Turkish President Erdogan approved the "secret Iran gold" trade that enabled Iran to evade US sanctions. Full Zarrab quote: "What I’m saying is that the prime minister at that time period Recep Tayyip Erdogan and minister of the treasury … had […]


Lira Plunges As Mystery Gold Trader Exposes “Secret” Turkish Deal To Evade Washington’s “Economic Jihad”

We detailed below that TRY was selling off on US accusations that the Turkish economic minister of taking bribes.   Citi's FX desk explains why Turkish markets are watching the US trial of a banker so closely. The basics: The US government has accused Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla of helping Iran evade US sanctions. […]


China Slashes Import Tariffs on Consumer Goods In Boost For Trump And Western Exporters

China announced it is slashing import tariffs on 187 consumer products starting next month. The Finance Ministry pointed to the cuts being concentrated in products in short supply domestically which, it believes, will prompt local producers to improve quality. The items in the list which, includes baby formula, diapers, electric toothbrushes, medicines, cosmetics, coffee machines […]


Mysterious Turk At Center Of “Secret Gold” Trade With Iran, Vanishes From Federal Jail

While long forgotten for some, in the summer of 2014, we reported in detail on what appeared to be the biggest, most bizarre money-laundering scheme ever, involving Turkey trading "200 tons of secret gold" with Iran… The topic of Turkey's Oil-for-Gold 'deals' has not been far from our thoughts over the last few years (here, […]


Trump Slams China For Unfair Trade But Praises XI, Blames Predecessors; Unveils $250BN In Deals

President Trump held a press conference with one of the most powerful people in the world and the event was…  underwhelming. It didn’t last long, the two stood fairly far apart at their lecterns and afterwards ignored questions from reporters (presumably in case one asked Xi about press freedoms again). In brief, we were informed […]


Bank Stocks, Dollar Slide Hit By Fresh Tax Reform Doubts

U.S. equity futures are little changed as European and Asian shares retreated, led by sliding bank stocks and a drop in the dollar as doubts over republican tax cuts and ongoing bond curve flattening hurt sentiment and prompted fresh questions over the viability of the US expansion. Investor concerns also returned to geopolitics as Trump […]


US Links Erdogan To “Secret Gold” Trade With Iran; Lira, Bonds Tumble

While long forgotten for some, in the summer of 2014, we reported in detail on what appeared to be the biggest, most bizarre money-laundering scheme ever, involving Turkey trading "200 tons of secret gold" with Iran… The topic of Turkey's Oil-for-Gold 'deals' has not been far from our thoughts over the last few years (here, […]


Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, […]


Traders Paralyzed, Markets Flat Ahead Of Today’s Main Event: The ECB’s Taper Announcement

US equity futures and Asian shares are flat this morning with European shares treading water ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting in which it’s expected to announce a tapering to its €60bn in monthly QE. On this busiest day of Q3 earnings season, companies set to report earnings include Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel, while […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: ECB Taper, Q3 GDP And Durables

The main even this week will be the ECB’s taper announcement on Thursday where consensus expects the ECB to announce a QE extension of €30bn per month for 9 month until Sep-18, with potential extension after. Net purchases between now and Dec-17 will continue at €60bn per month as planned. To cope with rate hike […]


Global Stocks Rise Oblivious Of Growing Geopol Risks; Oil, Commodities Jump On Kurdish Clashes

World stocks and commodities rose on Monday, boosted by upbeat Chinese data, while U.S. oil futures jumped to a near six-month high as escalating tensions between the Iraqi government and Kurdish forces threatened supply.  Global markets digested the large amount of weekend newsflow, and clearly liked what they saw as S&P futures were modestly in […]