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The Rude Awakening Of Slumbering Bulls

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Near the end of each year, Barron’s magazine highlights the outlooks for the next year from 10, or so, Wall Street strategists. As noted recently by Sentiment Trader: “Strategists are a little more optimistic than the Big Money was, forecasting a gain of around 7% for the S&P 500 […]


Great (Stock) Expectations

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, Consumers’ expectations for stock market gains have never been higher – or more assured. Since the August stock market low, bulls have had it pretty good. Rally participation has been excellent, as has price structure for the most part. Outside of a textbook successful test of The Most Important Level In […]


UMich Consumer Confidence Slides In November As Faith In Stocks Falters

Having hit the highest level since Jan 2004 in October, November’s final print shows the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell from 100.7 to 98.5, as both hope and current conditions slipped. Expewctations for inflation dipped. Consumers saw inflation rate in the next year at 2.5 percent after 2.4 percent the prior month. Inflation rate over […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]


Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops On Inflation, Rate-Hike Fears

UMich consumer sentiment declined from 100.7 to 97.8 in the preliminary November print, disappointing expectations of a small rise as anticipation of a pickup in inflation and higher interest rates weighed on the gauge. Even with the decline, sentiment was the second-highest since January, reinforcing other reports that Americans remain optimistic about employment and the […]


S&P Futures Slide After Chinese Stock And Bond Rout; Spain Rebounds, Dollar Drops

U.S. futures slid 0.2% as investors await a barrage of announcements including Wednesday’s Fed decision, Friday’s jobs report and, most importantly Trump’s imminent announcement of who the next Fed chairman will be, although after the latest trial balloons, Jay Powell is now largely priced in. Asian equities edged modestly higher despite a tumble in Chinese […]


Mauldin: “Investors Ignore What May Be The Biggest Policy Error In History”

Submitted by John Mauldin My good friend Peter Boockvar recently shared a chart with me. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers have been tracking consumers and their expectations about the direction of the stock market over the next year. We are now at an all-time high in the expectation that the stock market will […]


Americans’ Economic Confidence Turns Negative For First Time Since Election

Last week,we noted that, despite storms, wildfires, quakes, higher gas prices, and failed Washington policies, Americans are – according to The University of Michigan – their most confident since January 2004.   Additionally, businesses are cock-a-hoop BUT the real economy is seriously lagging…   This all seems a little odd… and sure enough, we get […]


UMich Survey Shows Americans Have Never, Ever Been More Bullish About Stocks

Despite storms, wildfires, quakes, higher gas prices, and failed Washington policies, Americans are – according to The University of Michigan – their most confident since January 2004.   But we think it's clear what is driving the optimism… total delusion! Americans have never been more confident that that stock market will rally further in the […]


“Investing Is Not A Competition… It’s A Game Of Long-Term Survival”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Melt-Up Gains Traction Back in November, just following the election of President Trump, I wrote about the market entering into potentially the final “melt-up” phase of the cyclical bull market. However, while economic and fundamental realities HAVE NOT changed since the election, markets are pricing in expected impacts of changes […]


“Most Hated” Rally Getting Record Love

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, A recent reading in one broad measure of consumer stock market sentiment was among the most bullish in history. Perma-bulls like to label this bull market the “most hated” in history. While the rally is historic by some metrics, the “most hated” status, to the degree that it was ever applicable, […]


Home-Buying Hope Crashes To 5-Year Low, Drags Consumer Confidence Lower

Americans' confidence in the economy has waned slightly following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused more than $100 billion in damage, pushed up gas prices and spurred a jump in unemployment filings. Overall, Bloomberg reports that the share of consumers expecting good times financially in the economy fell to 47 percent from 54 percent in […]


Dollar Ends Best Week Of The Year With A Whimper As Global Stocks Push All Time Highs

The dollar rally paused on Friday and looked poised to finish its best weekly gain of the year with a whimper, when in a repeat of the Thursday session the, Bloomberg dollar index first rose more than 0.1% during Asia hours before slumping around the European open as month and quarter-end flows came into play […]


The Week’s Key Events: European Inflation, US CapEx And Non-Stop Fed Speakers

Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. We also get China PMIs, Japanese CPI and industrial production, the RBNZ meeting and Brexit negotiations (4th). Additionally, there will be monetary policy […]


Global Stocks Mixed After “Nightmare Victory” For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a “Nightmare Victory” for Merkel and could lead to potentially complicated coalition talks and perhaps even another early election. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names over worries […]


September 25, 2017, Uncategorized