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US Services Economy Slumps To 15-Month Low, Manufacturing Rebounds

Despite a resurgence in positve surprises in hard macro data, PMIs (and soft survey data) has been fading in recent months and Markit's preliminary December showed a notable divergence in the US economy as Manufacturing rebounded to 2017 highs and Servces slumped to 15-month lows. Higher prices for raw materials resulted in the strongest rate […]


Stagflation Looms As PMI Shows Surging Costs And Sinking Growth

Following Manufacturing's drop, the US Services sector PMI disappointed in November, falling to its lowest since June (as business confidence tumbled to its weakest since February). Average selling prices soared as growth slumped setting the scene for a stagflationary future. ISM Services confirmed this weakness, tumbling to 3-month lows. Of course, between Markit and ISM, […]


US Manufacturing’s Hurricane-Rebound Is Over: New Orders Sink, Costs Soar

The brief rebound in US manufacturing after the hurricanes appears to have ended as Markit's PMI dropped from 54.6 to 53.9 as new orders slowed amid soaring inflation. For once ISM Manufacturing also agreed with PMI – dropping to its lowest since July – with employment and export orders sinking. While new orders slowed, the […]


ISM Services Survey Spikes To 12 Year Highs, PMI Disappoints

In the hazy and mixed world of 'soft' survey data, October's prints have been 'different'. Manufacturing PMI surged while ISM Manufacturing dropped and now Services PMI has flatlined but ISM Services surged to its highest since Aug 2005. As good as it gets?   Take your pick…   Under the hood we see that despite […]


US Manufacturing Shrugs Off Fires, Floods, & Storms In October But ISM Disappoints

Against disappointing China PMIs, US Manufacturing PMI surged back near 2017 highs in October – shrugging off the efects of recent storms, floods, and wildfires – with factory jobs near their best since the financial crisis and gains broadening out to smaller firms too. However, ISM Manufacturing disappointed, falling back from 13 year highs. So […]


ISM Services Spikes To 12-Year Highs – Beats Expectations By 5 Standard Deviations (As PMI Slides)

After the schizophrenic manufacturing data (ISM 13yr highs, PMI unch YoY), Services data was just as fucking ridiculous! UK and EU Services PMIs rose (and beat expectations) but US' September PMI dropped from 56.0 to 55.3. Markit's Services PMI dropped to 55.3 (dragging the composite index lower) as inflationary pressures intensify (highest in 3 years), […]


ISM Survey Says Manufacturing In America Is The Greatest In 13 Years

Following modest drops in UK and EU PMIs (and a mixed picture in China), Markit's US Manufacturing PMI inched higher in September amid schizophrenic collapse in output growth (14mo lows) and surge in employment (9mo highs). ISM, on the other hand, reported that US Manufacturing has not been this awesome since June 2004. Prices Paid […]


US Manufacturing “An Increasing Drag On The Economy” As PMI Drops For First Time Since March

Following a stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI print this morning, Markit reports a mixed bag for preliminary September US PMIs with Manufacturing limping higher but Services missing expectations and slipping notably. After 5 straight months of gains, the US Composite PMI dropped back below pre-election levels. As Markit notes, there were signs of underlying fragility in September, […]


US Services Economy Rebounds In August “But Harvey Impact A Big Unknown”

While US Manufacturing PMI slid in August, US Services PMI rose for the 5th straight month to its highest since Nov 2015. Following last month's collapse in ISM Services, August rebounded modestly to 55.3 (but missed expectations). Of course, as Markit notes, "the strong survey data add to the expectation that the economy was picking […]


August PMI Shows “Renewed Stuttering Of US Manufacturing Economy” But ISM Surges To 6 Year Highs

With soft survey data scrambling the macro traders minds currently (China manu good, services crash; Canada bad – despite surging GDP?), all eyes swing to US data this morning with Markit's Manufacturing PMI weaker than July (though beating expectations modestly) with a "renewed stuttering of the manufacturing economy during August." However, for those who need […]


US Services Economy Soars To Highest Since April 2015 As Manufacturing Slumps

The US Manufacturing economy continues to languish near one-year lows (in line with the collapse in 'hard data' in recent months) but US Services are soaring to their highest level since April 2015. Manufacturing was ugly across the board… Weaker increases in both output and new orders were key factors weighing on the headline manufacturing […]