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These PE Firms Are About To Get Crushed By Their Subprime Auto Bets

In the aftermath of the ‘great recession,’ private equity firms placed massive bets on subprime auto finance companies with the typical “thesis” going something like this: “well, people have to get to work don’t they?”…genius, if we understand it correctly. Of course, the “thesis” seemed to be confirmed when auto securitizations performed relatively well throughout […]


Signs Of The Peak: These 10 Charts Reveal An Auto Bubble On The Brink

U.S. auto sales have hovered well north of replacement rates for several years now on the back of an improving labor environment and more importantly an extremely accommodating financing market characterized by $0 down, 0% interest loans to subprime borrowers, with perpetually longer maturities to help manage monthly payments…because if your monthly payment is $500 […]


The Fed Issues A Subprime Warning As Household Debt Hits A New All Time High

After we first reported last week that US credit card debt once again rose above $1 trillion, despite a recent sharp downward revision to the data, while both student and auto loans rose to a fresh record high… … it would probably not come as a surprise that according to the just released latest quarterly […]


Next Phase Of Carmageddon: The Banks

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, Banks have started to tighten lending standards for prime and subprime borrowers, and it shows… Banks are further tightening their lending standards for prime and subprime auto loans. This process started in Q2 2016, when auto lending had reached the apogee of loosey-goosey underwriting that had boosted sales of […]


There’s Now A Subprime Auto Loan Program Designed Specifically For Refugees

If ever there was a doubt that auto sales have been pushed to the absolute max in this iteration of the industry’s debt-fueled bubble, then consider the following program specifically designed to underwrite subprime auto loans to refugees who have recently arrived in the U.S. with absolutely no credit history or record of any kind.  […]


S&P Wants You To Know They “Stress Tested” Subprime Auto ABS Structures And They’re “Very Stable”

The same firm that ‘assured’ us all back in 2006 that RMBS, CDOs, synthetic CDOs and CDO-squared structures were all very safe products and well deserving of their AAA ratings would now like for you to know that they’ve “stress tested” subprime auto ABS facilities and found that they’re “very stable.”  According to the Auto […]


Morgan Stanley Asks “If Employment So Good,” Why Is This Happening To Credit Card Delinquencies…

In a new downgrade of subprime lenders Capital One and Synchrony, Morgan Stanley sought to answer the nagging question of why subprime credit card losses are suddenly soaring, per the chart below, “if employment is so good.”    After reportedly spending the entire month of August analyzing that question, Morgan Stanley came to many of […]


Ford To Abandon “Traditional Credit Scores” For Underwriting Decisions As Sales Stall

So, what do you do when your sales are stalling because you’ve already financed new cars for every man, woman and child with a credit score north of 500?  Well, you simply abandon credit scores in the underwriting process and instead explicitly mandate that your loan officers approve every potential car buyer that walks through […]


Carmageddon: Deep Subprime Auto Delinquencies Spike To 10-Year Highs

If you’re still on the fence about whether the auto market in this country is anything but a massive bubble being propped up by extremely loose credit underwriting standards, then we think Equifax has just provided some definitive evidence that just might push you over the edge.  In discussing delinquency trends in deep subprime auto […]