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Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via Finanz und Wirtschaft, James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has […]


Treasurys Sell Off After Ugly, Tailing 10Y Auction Despite Record Specialness In Repo

If the 3Y TSY auction which priced earlier was stellar, outperforming historical averages on every metric, then the just concluded 9-year, 11-month reopening of CUSIP 3F5 was mediocre at best. Stopping at a high yield of 2.384%, this was a 0.5bps tail to the 2.379% When Issued, and 0.7bps higher than November’s 10Y high yield […]


Would A Leveraged Buyout Help Sears Turnaround Its Business?

Practically since the day he took the reins at Sears, CEO and Chairman Eddie Lampert has been steadily stripping the once mighty retailing behemoth of assets and protecting his hedge fund’s investment as the company continues its steady march toward bankruptcy. Any customer with the temerity to visit one of the remaining Sears or K-Mart […]


“This Is A Paralyzed Market”: Hedge Fund Turnover Drops To All Time Low

Back in July, Canaccord analyst Brian Reynolds put out a contrarian piece which broke with numerous conventional wisdom norms about the state of the market, key among which was that traders are not complacent, but rather – in light of collapsing trading volumes, something which has plagued bank income statements in the past 2 quarters […]


UBS Reveals The Stunning Reason Behind The 2017 Stock Market Rally

It’s 2018 forecast time for the big banks. With Goldman unveiling its seven Top Trades for 2018 earlier, overnight it was also UBS’ turn to reveal its price targets for the S&P in the coming year, and not surprisingly, the largest Swiss bank was extremely bullish, so much so in fact that its base case […]


Stocks Hit New Record Highs, Dollar Jumps On Senate Vote; Japan Has Longest Winning Streak In History

Global stocks hit new all time highs overnight, with US stock-index futures, Asian and European stocks all rising overnight after the Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution, paving the way for Trump’s $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, while news that “dove” Jay Powell may be the next Fed chair added to the risk-on sentiment. […]


Dollar Surges, Bonds Dump Ahead Of Trump Tax Plan

S&P futures are set for a higher open (+ 0.1%) despite the expected hit to the Dow from Nike which is down over 3% on unexpectedly poor revenue growth, as European stocks gain while Asian shares dropped. Like yesterday when the big story was the jump in the USD ahead of Yellen's (rather hawkish) speech, […]


“This Has Only Happened Twice Since 2009” – A New Source Of Concern For VIX ETFs

Last week, ahead of the FOMC, we reported that in the latest striking development involving volatility derivative products, the total outstanding Vega across the entire levered and inverse VIX ETP space had reached $375 million, an all time high.  This, as Bank of America showed, was the result of the highest positioning in levered long […]


Ahead Of The Fed, A Reminder: Gross Vega On VIX ETFs Just Hit A “Staggering” All Time High

What if the Fed surprised today, and instead of only announcing a reduction in its balance sheet, it also sent an uber-hawkish signal by hiking rates 25 bps, something which virtually nobody expected? While stocks would certainly suffer an adverse reaction, as the Fed confirmed that its intention was to burst one or more asset […]


Restoration Hardware Shorts Annihilated After Company Announces 50% Of Stock Repurchased

Restoration Hardware shorts had it too good for too long. After reporting abysmal numbers in Q3 2016, Q1 2016, Q4 2015 – when the company went so far to blame its own crashing stock price for poor earnings – RH stock more than doubled after its better than expected Q4 2016 numbers as long-suffering investors […]


How Stocks Reacted To The Biggest Geopolitical Shocks Since World War II

As Deutsche Bank warns in a note over the weekend, the S&P 500 is “long overdue for a pullback” for one simple reason: the BTFDers (and central banks) have overextended the current rally in the S&P 500 to the point where it is now one for the history books. Traditionally, 3-5% selloffs in the S&P […]


These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

One can argue that few industries have “suffered” more under central planning than billionaire hedge fund managers. It is no secret to regular readers that over the past decade, hedge funds have not only underperformed the market, but had as a group failed to generate “alpha” since 2011. As we have shown year after year, […]


Two Stunning Facts About Last Week’s VIX Explosion

Last Thursday morning, just as the VIX was soaring on North Korea nuclear war fears in a historic move from single digits to ultimately peak just above 17 before retracing virtually all of the move in the coming days, we reminded readers that “As VIX Explodes, A Painful Warning: The Vega Of VIX ETFs Has […]


Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Slump As Dollar Jumps Most In 3 Months

Tepper tells us "we're nowhere near bubble levels in the stock market" – so buy… what's to worry about?   Trannies were top today, Small Caps slammed as Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq trod water… before closing weak… (Boeing and Apple saved The Dow, adding 30 points between them today as HD removed 30)   VIX […]