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2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]

Fed Officials Push Radical Change In Monetary Policy As Powell Takes Over

Oh no…with the Federal Reserve in a state of flux as one Chairman prepares to step down and another (shock horror, who is not an economist) takes over, some of his colleagues who think they’ve found the “Holy Grail” of monetary policy are agitating for change. And, dare we say it, hoping it will raise […]

Fed Hints During Next Recession It Will Roll Out Income Targeting, NIRP

In a moment of rare insight, two weeks ago in response to a question “Why is establishment media romanticizing communism? Authoritarianism, poverty, starvation, secret police, murder, mass incarceration? WTF?”, we said that this was simply a “prelude to central bank funded universal income”, or in other words, Fed-funded and guaranteed cash for everyone. prelude to […]

Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]

“This Looks More Frightening”: Global Stock, Bond Selloff Accelerates Amid Risk-Parity Rumblings

Yesterday’s Japan flash-crash inspired selling continues for a second day, with global equities – and bonds – sliding early Friday on concerns U.S. tax reform – and corporate tax cuts – will be delayed after Senate Republicans unveiled a plan that differed significantly from the House of Representatives’ version. After suffering their biggest plunge in […]

Trump Expected To Announce His Pick For Fed Chair In Next Two Weeks

In the latest update on Trump’s search for the next Fed Chair, Reuters reported that the search has narrowed down to 5 finalists – Yellen, Warsh, Taylor, Powell and Cohn (condolences to Jeff Gundlach: his dark horse candidate, Neel Kashkari did not make the cut) – and that after meeting Yellen on Thursday, Trump will […]

Key Events In The Coming Week: CPI, Retail Sales And FOMC Minutes

In the traditionally quiet post-payrolls week, attention will focus on the US CPI report, retail sales and FOMC minutes as well as the Catalonia vote and Eurozone industrial production. Separately, we have UK construction, Chinese PMIs, Japanese BoP and inflation in the Scandies. A breakdown of the key events this week from BofA: FOMC minutes […]

Key Events In The Coming Week: A Negative Payrolls Number And Non-stop Fed Speakers

While central banks step away from the spotlight, as does Asian data and markets with China and South Korea both taking a weeklong break, there will be a bevy of central bank speakers to “explain” what is going on while it will be a busy week data wise, with the US employment trade balance report […]

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Fed Balance Sheet Announcement

This week attention will fall on US FOMC rate decision, BoJ policy rate announcement, German and NZ elections. Economic data releases include PMI in the Euro area, retail sales in the UK and existing home sales in US. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in South Africa, Indonesia, Hungary, Taiwan and Philippines. BofA […]

Full Jackson Hole Agenda Released

While virtually nobody expects anything market shattering, or even moving, to be released during either Janet Yellen’s or Mario Draghi’s speeches tomorrow (recall from our preview what UBS said: “Don’t expect news at Jackson Hole. Chair Yellen has told us what she wants to about normalization, for now. Financial stability matters, but it isn’t new” […]

Stocks Slide After Trump Threatens Government Shutdown Over Wall Funding, Killing NAFTA

Yesterday, when stocks surged at the market open following Politico’s report that Trump is unexpectedly “making strides” on tax reform, we warned that “it can all be wiped away as soon as tonight, when Trump will deliver a speech to his “base”, in which he may promptly burn any of the goodwill he created with […]