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The Coming Fiscal Derailment – Stockman Explains Why FY 2019 Will Sink The Casino

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Since last November 8th the Russell 2000 has risen by 30% and the net Federal debt has expanded by an astounding $1.0 trillion dollars. In a rational world operating with honest financial markets those two results would not be found in even remotely the same zip code; and especially not in month #102 of […]


Stockman Slams “Bubble Finance And The Era of No-See-Um Recessions”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Today's single most dangerous Wall Street meme is that there is no risk of a stock market crash because there is no recession in sight. But that proposition is dead wrong because it's a relic of your grandfather's economy. That is, a reasonably functioning capitalist order in which the […]


The Seven Questions Goldman’s Clients Have About “Rational Exuberance”

In mid-November, just days after Barclays released its 2018 equity outlook with the title “Rational Exuberance”… … Goldman’s David Kostin decided that imitation was the sincerest form of unveiling a non-contrarian year-end forecast, and in presenting his revised S&P price target for 2018 of 2,850 – which accounts for GOP tax reform – “borrowed” the […]


Stockman: “Bitcoin Is The Poster-Boy For An Unhinged Financial System”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The lemmings are now in full stampede toward the cliffs. You can literally hear the cold waters churning, foaming and crashing on the boulders far below. From bitcoin to Amazon, the financials, the Russell 2000 and most everything else in between, the casinos are digesting no information except the price […]


Small Cap Stocks: Time To Get Your Rally Caps On?

Small cap stocks tend to offer a bit more risk and reward. That equates to higher beta, which in turn tends to mean stronger returns when the broader market is healthy and weaker returns when the broader market is in the doldrums. So where are we now?  Likely at an important juncture. Small cap stocks […]


Unbridled Exuberance…

Authored by James Stack via InvesTech.com, From public confidence to bullish sentiment to the normally mundane employment data, the U.S. economy and stock market are reaching historic levels not seen in decades.  Last month, consumer confidence hit its highest level since December 2000.  The percentage of bullish investment advisors recently touched lofty levels that were […]


The 12-Point List To Identify Value Traps

Submitted by Nick Colas of Datatrek Research Poor, Poor Pitiful… Value Stocks "Value trap". That’s a phrase we haven’t heard much in recent years, but GE seems to be bringing it back. And as we looked at the dramatic outperformance of growth stocks over value this year, it is clear that there are many such […]


Hindenburg Omen Sighted As Stocks Suffer First Weekly Loss In 2 Months

Credit markets to stocks this week…   Before we start – let's celebrate. As @BespokeInvest notes, we're making history today: first 12 month period in the history of the S&P 500 without a 3% drawdown. The VIX is also the lowest on record using a rolling 12 month average.   All major indices ended the […]


One Year Later: These Are The Best And Worst Performing Assets Under President Trump

“A Happy Trumpiversary to all our readers this morning”        – Deutsche Bank Today marks exactly 12 months since the US election on November 8th 2016, and as Deutsche Bank writes in “A Happy 12 Month Trumpiversary For Markets?” a lot has happened in the last year, although most surprising may be that for all […]


“The S&P Is Up 21% Since Trump’s Election” And Other Market Anniversary Observations

November 8 will mark the one year anniversary of one of the biggest political shocks in US history: the election of Donald Trump. Since that improbable victory, which so many experts had said would lead to a market crash, the S&P 500 has soared by 21% according to Goldman which calculates that the Trump rally […]


Bearish Fund Traders Head For Early Hibernation

'Speculators' have never been so confidently complacent that 'all is well'. Speculative positioning in VIX futures and options remains at its most short in history as traders refuse to back away from 'what works' as realized volatility collapses to its lowest in over 60 years… And as Dana Lyons notes, assets in mutual funds designed […]


Small-Caps Seeing Historic Squeeze

For the last month we have been noting a dramatic divergence between Small Cap stock prices and their implied risk… We can only remember one such lengthy decoupling in recent history, and that did not end well… And of course this is all occurring as Small Cap earnings expectations plunge…   But now, as Dana […]


Record High Stocks, Record Low VIX But Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid

Buy it all… On the week – Stocks are up, Treasury Bonds are up, Corporate Bonds are up, Gold is up, Bitcoin is up, and WTI Crude is up…   Before we get started – consider the following…   And perhaps this will help explain last week's action compared to this week's? Everything reversed trend […]


Bitcoin Rips, Banks Dip As Fed Crushes Yield Curve To 10-Year Flats

The yield curve collapse means nothing… Don't sweat it…   While Trannies ripped higher, the rest of the equity market hummed along the unchanged line in a narrow range… (NOTE the weakness toward the end of the day which seems to have been catalkyzed by reports that Trump met with John Taylor re: fed head) […]


Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Gold Up, & Dollar Down But Tax-Hope Tumbles

Think you had a bad day…   Overnight saw market watchers celebrate the exuberant run in Japan's Nikkei 225 to its highest levels since 1996 (up 200% from its 2008/9 lows)… So – some context – it has taken 21 years of "buy and hold" to breakeven… and the index still needs to rally 88% […]