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Submitted by Mish Shedlock US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history. Let's investigate six ways. Crescat Capital claims US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior speculative mania market peaks in 1929 and 2000. Their 25-page presentation makes a compelling case, with numerous charts. It's worth your […]
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, This past weekend, I was in Florida with Chris Martenson and Nomi Prins discussing the current backdrop of the markets, economic cycles, and future outcomes. A bulk of the conversations centered around the current “everything bubble” that currently exists globally. Elevated valuations in stock prices, extremely low yields between […]
In this week's MacroVoices podcast, Erik Townsend interviews Francesco Filia, a fund manager at Fasanara Capital. After exchanging pleasantries, Townsend begins the interview by asking Filia, an analysts who's widely regarded for his research about how post-crisis monetary policy has impacted distorted markets, about the different metrics he uses to determine whether a certain asset […]
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, With Thanksgiving week rapidly approaching, I thought it was an apropos time to discuss what I am now calling a “Turkey” market. What’s a “Turkey” market? Nassim Taleb summed it up well in his 2007 book “The Black Swan.” “Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single […]
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, The only other times in our history when stock prices have been this high relative to earnings, a horrifying stock market crash has always followed. Will things be different for us this time? We shall see, but without a doubt this is what a pre-crash market […]
Authored by 720Global's Michael Liebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, If someone told you that the President of the United States in 2028 would be a Democrat and a woman from the state of New York, could you guess who it might be? We highly doubt it. In 1998, ten years before being elected president, Barack Obama had […]
Is it the onset of a recession or the fear of a recession that causes a crash? That is what SocGen’s bear (or, as he calls himself this time, wolf) Albert Edwards contemplated on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, before reaching the conclusion that it’s the latter. Having taken several weeks off from publishing […]
Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, US stock markets hit another all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 is nearing 2,600 and the Dow is over 23,300. In fact, US stocks have only been more expensive two times since 1881. According to Yale economist Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio – which […]
Authored by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital, In light of the 30-year anniversary of the Black Monday Crash in 1987 (when the Dow lost more than 20% in "one day", we should be reminded that investor anxiety usually increases when markets get to extremes. If stock prices fall steeply, people fret about money lost, and […]
By Robert Shiller, first published in the NYT Oct. 19, 1987, was one of the worst days in stock market history. Thirty years later, it would be comforting to believe it couldn’t happen again. Yet that’s true only in the narrowest sense: Regulatory and technological change has made an exact repeat of that terrible day […]
As is his way, Billionaire investor Warren Buffett calmed an anxious nation earlier this month with his comments that: "Valuations make sense with interest rates where they are." And it seemed to work as stocks hit new record highs and Americans have never, ever been more sure that stocks will continue rising for the next […]
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, During my morning reading, I ran across a couple of very interesting articles that tied a common theme relating to the current risks in the financial markets. Via Zerohedge: 88-year-old investing icon John “Jack” Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, said: “The valuations of stocks are, by my standards, […]
Robert Shiller isn’t the only Nobel Laureate who’s worried the US stock market is sleepwalking toward disaster. In an interview with Bloomberg’s Jeanna Smialek, Thaler, who was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences on Monday for his pioneering work in establishing that humans are “predictably irrational”, said that the stock market’s complacency in […]
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, With the market recently breaking above 2500, there seems to be nothing to dampen the bullish exuberance. The recent run, which has largely been focused on areas in the market with the most sensitivity to tax cuts, has exploded over the last two weeks to record highs. That explosion […]
"The present moment of blissful delusion is remarkable to witness. Take it in…" says John Hussman of Hussman Funds. In the following few words and updated charts, Hussman exposes the farce even further… The first chart below updates our variant of Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE), where we’ve adjusted the measure to account for variation […]