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Are Repos Signaling A Massive Bond Short Ahead Of Payrolls?

It's been a few months since we saw any major dislocations in the Treasury repo market, i.e., collateral shortages as a result of surging TSY shorts; for the simple reason that after the first quarter when everyone was certain that Trump reflation trade would kick in but didn't, the record number of built up spec […]


Short Sellers Are Aggravating China’s Bond Rout – Regulators AWOL (For Now)

After the Party Congress finished in October and China’s centrally planned markets were released (somewhat) from the vice-like grip which had prevailed during the proceedings, we noted the comment from Huachuang Securities that China’s bond holders may be about to get hit by “daggers falling from the sky”, referring to deleveraging. They were right, to […]


Chinese “Ghost Collateral” Scam Leads To Market “Shockwaves”, Huge Loss For Giant Commodity Trader

Back in 2014, a scandal erupted when media reports confirmed what many had previously speculated about China’s banking system: namely that much of China’s staggering loan issuance had been built (literally) upon air and that trillions in loan collateral had been “rehypothecated” between two, three or many more debtors – or never even existed – […]


A Technical History Of Market Melt-Ups

Authored by Vincent Delaurd via INTL-FCStone, Melt-Up, FOMO, and Other Climaxes – A Technical History of Good Times Bottom Line: Many strategists are calling for a year-end melt-up: I believe it already happened There have been 76 melt-ups since 1900: the current one is already the second longest on record Stocks have achieved a Sharpe […]


This Will Be The Biggest Buyer Of Stocks In 2018

In July, many were surprised to learn (even though we have shown this many times prior), that according to Credit Suisse analysts there has been just one buyer of stocks since the financial crisis: the corporate sector, also known as “stock buybacks.” Well, don’t change the channel, because according to Goldman’s just released forecast of […]


Goldman: This Will Be The Biggest Buyer Of Stocks In 2018

In July, many were surprised to learn (even though we have shown this many times prior), that according to Credit Suisse analysts there has been just one buyer of stocks since the financial crisis: the corporate sector, also known as “stock buybacks.” Well, don’t change the channel, because according to Goldman’s just released forecast of […]


Active Bond Traders Have Never Been More Short Treasurys: Is A Squeeze Imminent?

Yesterday, when discussing Crispin Odey’s letter to clients and what appears to be his “Hail Mary” trade, we pointed out that according to his latest client letter, the billionaire hedge fund manager has effectively bet everything on a plunge in bond prices, with a whopping 135% net short in gilts and JGBs. We noted that, […]


Weekend Reading: Yellen Takes Away The Punchbowl

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, September 20th, 2017 will likely be a day that goes down in market history. It will either be remembered as one of the greatest achievements in the history of monetary policy experiments, or the beginning of the next bear market or worse. Given the Fed’s inability to spark either […]


Ugly, Tailing 10Y Auction: Lowest Indirects Since 2016

If yesterday’s 3Y auction was ugly, today’s $20 billion 9-year-11 month reopening was just as abysmal. With a high yield of 2.18%, this was not only a whopping 1.1bp tail to the 2.169% When Issued, it was the 6th consecutive “tail” in a row, with just 2 10Y auction stopping through so far in 2017 […]


Ugly, Tailing 3Y Auction: Bid to Cover Tumbles, Lowest Indirects Since 2016

Whether due to the broader risk-on move, or as a result of a surge in inflation fears in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irmas and Harvey, today’s auction of $24 billion in 3Y paper was arguably the ugliest yet in 2017. Printing at a high yield of 1.4330%, while this was the lowest yield since February, […]


“We’ve Never Seen Anything Like This”: Repo Market Snaps As 10Y Suffers “Epic Fail”

It’s been a while since we saw any major dislocations in the Treasury repo market, i.e., collateral shortages as a result of surging TSY shorts, for the simple reason that after the first quarter when everyone was certain that Trump reflation trade would kick in but didn’t, the record number of built up spec net […]


Is A US Default Imminent: Liquidation Panic Grips T-Bills Market

While the politicians and the mainstream media are playing down any concerns about the US debt ceiling, Treasury Bill market participants are seeing chaos as the yield curve has snapped across the Sept-Oct divide with panic-buying in bills that mature ahead of the September-end (Q3-end liquidity needs), and dumping of October bills.   As Treasury […]


Breadth, Bonds, Bills, & Bear Funds Signal Trouble Ahead For Stocks

The 'resilience' of stock markets is proclaimed as self-reflectingly positive, as they surge higher, enthusiastically embracing debt ceiling anxiety, nuclear armageddon, and biblical floods. However, below the surface all is very much not rosy… As Bloomberg reports, this is a warning for stock traders entranced by a market that remains resilient to surprises. Even though […]


About That Debt Ceiling Crisis…

With just one month left until the “X Date”, better known as the first day on which Treasury has exhausted its borrowing authority and no longer has sufficient funds to pay all of its bills in full and on time, and also known as the date the US is technically in default on its debt […]


US Stock Buybacks In Biggest Slide Since The Financial Crisis

In light of today’s euphoric market reaction, which has seen the VIX plunge by over 3 vols, or 20% lower, to just over 12 and sent both the Nasdaq and S&P higher by 1% on relief that there were no mushroom clouds of the weekend, the jury is out whether last week’s sharp risk off, […]