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Gold Gains As Stocks Sink After Trump Turmoil, Fed Fearmongering

Shitty day for Housing Recovery enthusiasts, the Trump administration, and Fed followers…   Stock actually ended the day higher thanks to the overnight bid and panic squeeze at the open but the theme of the day was simple – Trump is in trouble (agenda on the rocks) and The Fed is explicitly warning about bubbles… […]


WTI/RBOB Slide After Oil Production Surge Offsets Biggest Crude Draw Since Sept

Following last night's mixed mesage from API (crude draw, gasoline build), WTI prices have gone nowhere as all eyes focus on DOE data this morning. Confirming API's trend, crude saw its biggest draw since Sept 2016 but Gasoline, Distillates, and Cushing (most since March) saw builds which upset the machines and sent prices lower. Crude […]


Housing Recovery False Alarm – Starts, Permits Plunge In July As Rental Units Collapse

Following June's huge surprise jumps in Housing Starts (revised lower) and Building Permits (revised notably higher), July saw both starts and permits plunge (-4.8% and -4.1% respectively) dramatically missing expectations. The majority of the plunge is driven by multi-family starts crashing 35.2% YoY to its lowest since Sept 2016.   Permits' 7.4% June surge was […]


Global Stocks Rise Amid Unexpected ECB “Trial Balloon”; Dollar Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

European markets continued their risk-on trend in early trading, rising to the highest in over a week and rallying from the open led by mining stocks as industrial metals spike higher after zinc forwards hit highest level since 2007, lifting copper and nickel. The EUR sold off sharply, boosting local bond and risk prices after […]


VIX Tumbles, Global Stocks And Dollar Rally As Korea Tensions Ease

Overnight bulletin summary Global equities trade higher amid easing geopolitical tensions Pound tumbles on weaker than expected inflation data Today’s calendar includes US retail sales, Empire Fed, import prices, NAHB, and API crude oil inventories Global stocks and US futures are up for a second day, with the VIX sliding 0.65 vols to 11.68 (-5.2%) […]


U.S. Restaurant Industry Stuck In Worst Collapse Since 2009

Shortly after we reported that the “restaurant industry hasn’t reported a positive month since February 2016“, we can add one more month to the running total: according to the latest update from Black Box Intelligence’s TDn2K research, in July both same-store sales and foot traffic declined once again, and this time the slide was more […]


Canadian Lumber Stocks Tumble On Report US-Canada Timber Trade War To Escalate

Canadian lumber stocks are diving this morning following a report from BMO analyst Mark Wilde who writes that “prospects for a near-term settlement of the U.S./Canadian lumber dispute have faded“, prompting him to downgrade the main players in the space. The report has sent the stocks of West Frasier Timber (WFT), Canfor (CFP) and Interfor […]


Are We Already In Recession?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, If we stop counting zombies, we're already in recession. How shocked would you be if it was announced that the U.S. had just entered a recession, that is, a period in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines (when adjusted for inflation) for two or more quarters? Would […]


VIX Tumbles, S&P Futures, Global Stocks Rebound Sharply As Korea Fears Fade

The VIX tumbled by nearly 3 vols, down to 13.10 last, or over 18% lower and global stocks and S&P futures rebounded sharply on Monday as tensions over an imminent conflict with Pyongyang receded after U.S. officials played down the likelihood of a nuclear conflict with North Korea, recovering from fears of a U.S.-North Korea […]


Trump Warns Xi: Trade War With China Begins Monday

As if there weren’t enough geopolitical and social stress points in the world to fill a lifetime of “sleepy, vacationy” Augusts, late on Friday night President Trump spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping and told him that he’s preparing to order an investigation into Chinese trade practices next week, according to NBC. Politico confirms that […]


FX Week Ahead: Myopic Markets Hit USD On Inflation Miss

Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from fxdaily.co.uk FX Week Ahead – Myopic markets hit USD on inflation 'miss' – rest of the major economies in focus ahead. Once again, sluggish inflation takes a hammer to currency and we saw the USD turn back from a tentative recovery, which many still see as […]


Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe Fears “Strong Parallels” Between 1930s And Today: “It’s Going To Be A Rollercoaster Ride”

This week on the MacroVoices podcast, host Erik Turner interviewed Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning, an investing tract that’s found renewed relevance thanks to White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, who’s cited it as an inspiration for his (and by extension, President Donald Trump’s) worldview. According to the New York Times, which published […]