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Bank Of America: “This Is A Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is “paradox“, as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees. A “paradox” was on full display in […]


The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


Greece Is The Patsy For Europe’s Failure (And The Ordeal Is Far From Over)

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, I feel kind of sorry this has become such a long essay. But I still left out so much. You know by now I care a lot about Greece, and it’s high time for another look, and another update, and another chance for people to […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s A Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually […]


The Great Oil Swindle

Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com, … is leading us to destruction. When it comes to the story we're being told about America's rosy oil prospects, we're being swindled.  At its core, the swindle is this: The shale industry's oil production forecasts are vastly overstated. Swindle:  Noun  – A fraudulent scheme or action. And the swindle […]


Jeffrey Gundlach Warns “The Goldilocks Era Is Over”

Authored by Robert Huebscher via AdvisorPerspectives.com, Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central banks reverse their quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates, this “Goldilocks era” will come to an end, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer […]


Bank of Canada Governor Is Right To Be Worried About The Economy

  Bank of Canada Governor Is Right To Be Worried About The Economy Written by Peter Diekmeyer, Sprott Money News       Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz cited numerous worries plaguing the economy during his speech to Toronto’s financial elites yesterday at the prestigious Canadian Club. However, the title of Poloz’s presentation, “Three […]


Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]


Swedish Housing Bubble Pops As Stockholm Apartment Prices Crash Most Since June 2009

Even though Sweden’s property bubble is not the longest running (that accolade goes to Australia at 55 years), it is probably the world’s biggest with prices up roughly 6-fold since starting its meteoric rise in 1995. Of course, as we noted last month when the SEB’s housing price indicator, which measures the difference between those […]


Some Ex-Cons Are Finally Finding Jobs: But Does The Fed Care?

While CNN doesn’t dedicate much time to covering the subject, we’ve repeatedly pointed out that, contrary to what conventional wisdom might lead one to believe, incarceration rates among white Americans have risen since 2000 while incarceration rates for minorities have fallen. The US prison population is finally shrinking after swelling to more than 2 million […]


Saudi Arabia Launches Misguided $19 Billion Stimulus In Desperate Bid To Kickstart 2018 Growth

If you haven’t been living under a rock in recent months, it’s been impossible to miss the turmoil in Saudi Arabia and its relations with the outside world. A few weeks ago we published a piece by Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com “If The Saudi Arabia Situation Doesn't Worry You, You're Not Paying Attention”. Martenson argued. […]


Stockman Slams “Bubble Finance And The Era of No-See-Um Recessions”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Today's single most dangerous Wall Street meme is that there is no risk of a stock market crash because there is no recession in sight. But that proposition is dead wrong because it's a relic of your grandfather's economy. That is, a reasonably functioning capitalist order in which the […]


2 Charts That Might Define The Fed’s Jerome Powell Era

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, In September, we proposed a theory of the Fed and suggested that the FOMC will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we’ll add more […]


Stephen Roach Warns “Complacency Will Be Tested In 2018”

Authored by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate, Despite seemingly robust indicators, the world economy may not be nearly as resilient to shocks and systemic challenges as the consensus view seems to believe. In particular, the absence of a classic vigorous rebound from the Great Recession means that the global economy never recouped the growth lost […]