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Will QE Be the Needle That Bursts the Bond Bubble in 2018?

If you wanted more evidence that Central Banks will stop at nothing to induce inflation, consider that yesterday Bank of Japan stated that it will continue with its QE program and with negative rates for as long as it takes to achieve 2% inflation. Mind you, Japan’s economy has just posted its SEVENTH straight quarter […]


US Consumers Tap Out: Personal Savings Rate Plunges To 10 Year Low While Americans Splurge

The latest confirmation that the US consumer is now effectively tapped out came moments ago when the Dept of Commerce reported that in November, Personal Income rose by a lower than expected 0.3% (exp. 0.4%), while US consumers continued to splurge at an accelerated rate, with personal spending rising 0.6%, above the 0.5% expected, as […]


If Bitcoin Is A Bubble…

Authored by Erik Norland via CMEGroup.com, Our earlier articles on bitcoin discuss the crypto asset as a currency and a commodity. Both papers focused on the consequences of bitcoin’s defining feature: the asymptotic supply limit of 21 million coins. This gives it an unusual juxtaposition of demand uncertainty and supply certainty (as well as inelasticity). […]


Is California Already In Recession?

By Political Calculations When it comes to the health of his state's economy, California Governor Jerry Brown has been walking on eggshells this year. Twice each year, once in January and again in May, Gov. Jerry Brown warns Californians that the economic prosperity their state has enjoyed in recent years won't last forever.   Brown […]


3-(Mis)Statements About Tax Reform

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, With the passage of the Tax Cut And Jobs Act on Wednesday, I wanted to address a few of the questions and misinformation currently circulating about the impact of tax cuts on the U.S. economy. Over the last couple of months, I have been repeatedly asked why I am […]


These PE Firms Are About To Get Crushed By Their Subprime Auto Bets

In the aftermath of the ‘great recession,’ private equity firms placed massive bets on subprime auto finance companies with the typical “thesis” going something like this: “well, people have to get to work don’t they?”…genius, if we understand it correctly. Of course, the “thesis” seemed to be confirmed when auto securitizations performed relatively well throughout […]


Its 2007 Redux – What Is Your Excuse This Time?

Here we go again, again.   The unemployment rate is at a historic low.  GDP is above 3% and with the recently enacted historic tax cuts, poised to go much higher.  Inflation is at the Federal Reserve’s target.  Housing starts and sales are booming and housing supply is at an all-time low.  Equities are hitting […]


Is The GOP Tax Cut Finally Priced In? Here’s What Wall Street Thinks

Having passed the Senate, and – moments ago, for the second time – the House, the Republican Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, aka the Trump Tax Cuts is officially a done deal, just waiting for the President’s signature, at which point the longest “rumor” of 2017 will become the news. But does that mean that […]


“In The End, There Was Absurdity” – The Great Crash Of 2018?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen, op-ed via Huffington Post, Crises always take longer to arrive than you think, and then happen much quicker than they ought to. – Rudiger Dornbusch An eerie calm has taken over the world markets. Volatility is crashing, and economic and political shocks come and go without any noticeable effect on the […]


How The Asset Bubble Could End – Part 2

Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, Read Part 1 here… Contradictory Signals Special antennae that help traders catch upcoming opportunities. Available from the same outfit that sells the soup-cooling spoon (Acme Inc).   There is just one more positioning indicator we want to mention: after surging by around $126 billion since March of 2016, NYSE […]


The Coming Fiscal Derailment – Stockman Explains Why FY 2019 Will Sink The Casino

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Since last November 8th the Russell 2000 has risen by 30% and the net Federal debt has expanded by an astounding $1.0 trillion dollars. In a rational world operating with honest financial markets those two results would not be found in even remotely the same zip code; and especially not in month #102 of […]


How Government Inaction Ended The Depression Of 1921

Authored by Lew Rockwell via Mises Canada, As the financial crisis of 2008 took shape, the policy recommendations were not slow in coming: why, economic stability and American prosperity demand fiscal and monetary stimulus to jump-start the sick economy back to life. And so we got fiscal stimulus, as well as a program of monetary […]


2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]


Doug Kass’ 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump

Authored Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, "The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory [is] the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context . . . finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment . . . soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been […]


What The Yield Curve Says About The Timing Of The Next Recession

While most financial professionals would enjoy nothing more than to trade bitcoin all day long – after all it only goes up in the long run (for now), while bringing insane volatility with it – the reality for most is that they are confined to such boring, established legacy instruments as Treasurys, which rarely have […]