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“Are Central Bankers About To Lose Control?” The WSJ Asks And Citi Answers

In an article published by the WSJ today, which was originally titled “Are Central Bankers About to Lose Control?” but after some shoulder taps was renamed to the far more neutral “Can Central Banks Keep Control of Interest Rates?” author Jon Sindreu looks at the current Goldilocks state of the market, in which global growth […]


Is the Bond Market About to Call the Fed’s Inflationary Bluff?

Perhaps the single biggest development this year, as far as the markets were concerned, was the Fed admitting on the record that it has no idea what is going on with inflation. This represents a kind of endgame for the Fed. Since the early ‘80s, the Fed has been actively understating inflation via a variety […]


Are Bonds Really On The Run? Why One Trader Is Skeptical

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader. So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen’s FX strategist, […]


Zombie Corporations: Over 10% Of Global Companies Depend On Cheap Fed Money

Authored by Mike Shedlock via www.themaven.net/mishtalk, Ten percent of corporations survive only because central banks have kept real interest rates negative. The BIS defines Zombie firms as those with a ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to interest expenses below one, with the firm aged 10 years or more. In simple terms, Zombies are […]


Morgan Stanley: These Are The 5 Cs That Will Shape 2018

Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya, global co-head of economics, who undeterred by Morgan Stanley’s dire credit outlook, is especially optimistic about the coming year, and in today’s Sunday Start writes that the bank’s key call for 2018 is that “the global cycle will stay stronger for longer” and explains that his constructive view is borne out […]


Who Are You Going to Trust, the Fed or $76 Trillion in “Smart Money”?

Let’s talk about inflation. There are two types of inflation in the world… the “inflation” that you and I experience in the form of a rising cost of living induced by Central Banks devaluing our currencies… …and the inflation that Central Banks are “targeting” in the bizarre claim that somehow hitting said targets will unleash […]


Bond Bears & Why Rates Won’t Rise

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Here we go again… Since June of 2013, I have been writing about the reasons why rates can’t rise much and why calls for the end of the “bond bull market” remain wrong. Regardless, about every 3-months or so, there is a tick up in rates and you can […]


700 Years Of Data Suggests The Reversal In Rates Will Be Rapid

Have we been lulled into a false sense of security about the future path of rates by ZIRP/NIRP policies? Central banks’ misguided efforts to engineer inflation have undoubtedly been woefully feeble, so far. As the Federal Reserve “valiantly” raises short rates, markets ignore its dot plot and yield curves continue to flatten. And thanks to […]


The Big Reversal: Inflation And Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, This interaction will spark a runaway feedback loop that will smack asset valuations back to pre-bubble, pre-pyramid scheme levels. According to the conventional economic forecast, interest rates will stay near-zero essentially forever due to slow growth. And since growth is slow, inflation will also remain neutral. This […]


EU Shadow Rate Madness

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, The other day I stumbled upon this great tweet from Holger Zschaepitz, the senior editor of the financial desk of the German newspaper, Die Welt. I have often said the last thing any equity bull should hope for is a strong economy, especially one accompanied with […]


What Goldbugs Have Been Waiting For: Goldman’s New Primer On Gold

The good news is that Goldman believes “precious metals remain a relevant asset class in modern portfolios, despite their lack of yield” and disagrees with Ben Bernanke and the naysayers “They are neither a historic accident or a relic. Indeed, by looking at each of the physical properties of an ideal long-term store of value…we […]


Be Careful What You Wish For: Inflation Is Much Higher Than Advertised

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, What the Federal Reserve is actually whining about is not low inflation – it's that high inflation isn't pushing wages higher like it's supposed to. It's not exactly a secret that real-world inflation is a lot higher than the official rates–the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal […]


Fed’s Kaplan Makes A Stark Admission: Equilibrium Rate May Be As Low As 0.25%

As we have hammered away at for years, “the math doesn’t work”, and it appears The Fed just admitted it. In a stunning admission that i) US economic potential is lower than consensus assumes and ii) that the Fed is finally considering the gargantuan US debt load in its interest rate calculations, moments ago the […]


What Does The QE Experience Say About Rates In A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet World?

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, The Federal Reserve is likely to decide next week to begin letting assets roll of its balance sheet as bonds mature, instead of reinvesting the proceeds. This means that the balance sheet will begin to shrink in size and other market participants will be forced to […]


“The Ratio Is Literally Off The Chart”: Measuring The Real Bond Bubble

Submitted by Francseco Filia of Fasanara Capital Measuring the Bond Bubble A key conviction of ours is that we live through a Twin Bubble in asset markets: an Equity Bubble, particularly in the US, and a Bond Bubble, particularly in Europe. We know how we got here: the irresistible push of 10 years of massive passive […]