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Taxes, Balance Of Payments, & The USDollar Paradox

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, Investors were finally treated yesterday to some of the most important compromise provisions to come out of the House-Senate conference on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Among them were: 21% corporate rate Reduction of the top wage rate to 37% 20% deduction on pass-through income […]


TINA’s Dead – US Equities Are No Longer ‘Cheap’ To Bonds

For almost 7 years, asset-gatherers and commission-takers have exclaimed "There Is No Alternative" to stocks, given how low interest rates are. However, given the recent buying-panic in stocks, TINA is now dead BAB is back (Bonds Are Better)… In a sign the U.S. equity rally may be looking stretched, Bloomberg notes that the forward dividend yield […]


The Rude Awakening Of Slumbering Bulls

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Near the end of each year, Barron’s magazine highlights the outlooks for the next year from 10, or so, Wall Street strategists. As noted recently by Sentiment Trader: “Strategists are a little more optimistic than the Big Money was, forecasting a gain of around 7% for the S&P 500 […]


The Stock Market & The FOMC – An Astonishing Statistic

Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the […]


Eric Peters: Today’s Opportunities Include Negative Convexity, Complexity, Illiquidity, Leverage, Or All The Above

From the latest Weekend Notes by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management Anecdote “What are the odds we come across an opportunity in the coming 4yrs to earn 20%?” the investor asked his team. “High,” they answered. “The odds are 100%,” he said, having seen this movie a few times. “So our cost […]


Goldman: The Last Time This Happened Was Just Months Before The Start Of The Great Depression

Ah Goldman, never change. One week after Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin predicted a three-year bull market of “rational exuberance“, lifting his 2018 S&P price target from 2,500 to 2,850 rising to 3,100 in 2020, and stating that should the exuberance turn “irrational”, the S&P could rise as high as 5,300 by the end […]


“Nightmare On Bond Street”: HY Turmoil Leads To Third Largest Junk Outflow In History

Following this month’s drop in junk bond prices and the 40 bps spread widening in high yield last week – the largest since November 2016 – Bank of America has come up with an apt title for its weekly fund flow report: “Nightmare on Bond Street”… … and with good reason: last week, US junk […]


Three Easy Pieces

Authored by 720Global's Michael Liebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, If someone told you that the President of the United States in 2028 would be a Democrat and a woman from the state of New York, could you guess who it might be? We highly doubt it. In 1998, ten years before being elected president, Barack Obama had […]


Here Is Another Thing “The Market Has Never Done Before”

In this historic, for global markets, year we are fast running out of things “the market has never done before.” For today’s entry we go to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid who looks at the S&P’s performance in the month of October, and writes that the broad index, which ended the supposedly most volatile month of […]


Dow 500,000?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I genuinely admire Morgan Housel. I think he is a brilliant and talented writer. However, he sent out a tweet on Friday that really struck a chord with me. If you're less than 50 years old and the market returns at least 5% a year on average the Dow […]


If You Bought 30 Years Ago Today…

30 year ago today, traders were having a bad day: the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, -20%, -11%, -9% and -10% respectively. The FTSE fell a further 12% the day after, reflecting the difficulties in fully reopeningthe market after the great storm a few days before. The day would eventually become […]


Rationality Versus The Market

Rationality Versus The Market Posted with permission and written by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse   The late stages of financial bubbles are always tough for rational analysts. Focused as they are on the numbers, such analysts are relatively immune to the emotion that drives the action at market extremes, so they find themselves making predictions […]


The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2017 YTD

While September and Q3 were the latest solid month for US risk assets, which ended the month and quarter at all time highs, across the globe returns were relatively more mixed for the sample of assets tracked by Deutsche Bank. That said, a large number of assets (21 of 39 in local currency terms) finished […]


BofA: $2 Trillion YTD In Central Bank Liquidity Is Why Stocks Are At Record Highs

One week ago, in his weekly “flow report“, BofA’s Michael Hartnett looked at the “Disconnect Myth” between rising stocks and sliding yields and succinctly said that there is “no disconnect between stocks & bonds.” Why? The reason for low yields and high stocks was simple: trillions in central bank intervention. The result is an era […]


Investor Apathy: Crashes (& Valuations) Matter After All

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Recently, Ryan Vlastelica penned a column suggesting investors should simply be “apathetic” when it comes to their money. “Apathy doesn’t sound like a sensible investment philosophy, but it may be one of the most successful approaches a person can employ to grow wealth.” Listen. I get it. You can’t […]