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Final Q3 GDP Revised To 3.2%, Highest Since Q1 2015

In the third and final estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy eased back fractionally from last month’s “hot” 3.3% print, and as a result of a modest decline in Personal Consumption from 1.60% to 1.49% (in the GDP calculation) as well as net trade, the final GDP print came in at 3.2%, down slightly […]


ECB Unveils New, Higher Inflation Forecasts; Pushes Bund Yields Higher

While the rest of Draghi’s presser was uneventful, the two things investors were looking for were the ECB’s revised GDP and inflation forecasts. And while the first saw a modest improvement across the board relative to the September forecast as follows: 2017 at 2.4% vs 2.2% In Sept. 2018 at 2.3% vs 1.8% 2019 at […]


BoE Preview: “Should Be A Non-Event”

As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the BoE meeting due in minutes, should be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature. Here is some more courtesy of […]


Core Consumer Price Growth Comes In Cold – Apparel Prices Plunge Most Since 1998

Following producer prices' surge in November, consumer prices rose 2.2% YoY (as expected). October producer price pushed to its highest since Dec 2011 but consumer prices are not being pushed higher for now… The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase; indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used […]


Stocks Rebound From “Bama Shock”, All Eyes On Yellen’s Last Rate Hike

After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP’s Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again […]


Mark Carney Forced To Explain Surge In UK Inflation To Highest In Almost 6 Years

The market expected Mark Carney to avoid it but it was just not meant to be. The BoE Governor will suffer the ignominy of a bizarre tradition of having to write a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining why UK inflation is more than 1.0% above the target of 2.0%. The market had […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Yellen’s Swan Song And Final Rate Hike; Draghi’s Silence, US Inflation

After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]


Dow Hits Record 24,000, Europe Jumps As Euphoria Returns After Tech Rout

Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which presured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Senate Tax Vote; Euro Inflation; GDP; OPEC, Fed Speakers

It’s a busy week as traders return from the long Thanksgiving holiday, with inflation releases in the Eurozone and Japan. We’ll also get the second estimate of US GDP, housing data and ISM manufacturing, UK monetary aggregates and PMIs in China. Finally, the Russia-OPEC meeting takes place in Vienna on November 30, while the Senate […]


Is America In Terminal Decline?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, John Rubino recently posted a graph from Bob Prechter’s Elliot Wave that points to some ominous signs. It depicts the S&P 500, combined with consumer confidence and savings rate. As the accompanying video at Elliott Wave, What “Too Confident to Save” Means for Stocks, shows, […]


Weekend Reading: You Have Been Warned

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Investors aren’t paying attention. There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week. On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index […]


How Uncle Sam Inflates Away Your Life

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” once remarked economist and Nobel Prize recipient Milton Friedman.  He likely meant that inflation is the more rapid increase in the supply of money relative to the output of goods and services which money is traded for. As more and more […]


Treasury Curve Collapses To Fresh 10-Year Lows After Data Dump

Hot CPI, disappointing retail sales, slumping surveys, and a drop in real wages… is it any wonder the yield curve just flushed another 3bps to a 75bps handle – the flattest 5s30s curve since Nov 2007.   This is the 13th daily flattening out of the last 15 days…   Everything changed after China intervened […]


Americans’ Real Wage Growth Contracts For 3rd Straight Month – First Time Since 2012

For the first time since 2012, real average hourly earnings has declined for 3 straight months… Dragging the year-over-year growth in real earnings down to just 0.4% – the weakest growth since April.   Overall, Real average weekly earnings up $1.40 from a year earlier to $370.03. Welcome to the road to serfdom America. http://WarMachines.com


Core Consumer Prices Come In Hot – Rise At Fastest Rate In 6 Months

Following yesterday's hotter than expected PPI, Core Consumer Prices printed above expectations (+1.8% YoY vs +1.7% YoY exp) – the fastest rise since April 2017.   Headline CPI was in line with expectations at 2.0% – a slight slowing from last month…   The biggest driver of the increase in consumer prices was a 2.3% […]