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Citi’s “What If?” Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 “What If” scenarios that didn’t make it into the Citi Credit team’s (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi’s “base case” was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank’s credit team […]


Tory Power Base Takes Another Hit After Theresa May’s Right Hand Man Fired Over Pornography

Tory (lack of) power-base takes another hit. The UK prime minister’s right hand man Damian Green has been fired from his post based on the allegations over pornography usage. In an ongoing saga Damian Green was “asked to quit” after he made “inaccurate and misleading” statements over what he knew about claims pornography was found […]


Theresa May Humiliated As Tory Rebellion Leads To Key Brexit Vote Loss

Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a humiliating defeat for her key Brexit law on Wednesday after pro-European members of her own party openly defied her orders in a vote in Parliament. The vote in the UK Parliament was described as being “knife-edge” with the BBC’s chief political correspondent, Norman Smith, called it a “Big Bananas […]


Trader: UK Does Brexit Best When It Does Nothing At All

From the latest Macro View by current Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore U.K. Does Brexit Best When It Does Nothing At All: Macro View With apologies to my compatriot Ronan Keating, there’s a non-negligible and rising probability that Brexit doesn’t happen. Ultimately that would be a positive for U.K. assets. An […]


Pound Tumbles Amid Brexit Chaos, “Headline Havoc”

Cable traders are suffering through a news overload this morning, with the optimism and euphoria which sent the pound to two month highs as recently as 2 days ago fading fast on speculation whether UK PM Theresa May will be able to engineer a Brexit breakthrough in time. And following overnight speculation that her cabinet […]


Cable Soars After UK, Ireland Agree On Brexit Border Deal

As several sellside desks have summarized, today will be a binary one for GBP: either deal or no deal. And following an early swoon in cable after speculation rose that a deal would be elusive, the pound soared above 1.35 following a report that EU chief brexit negotiator Barnier told MEPs that a breakthrough is […]


“You’re Right, I’m A Threat To Big Banks” – UK Opposition Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, Lashes Out At Morgan Stanley

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley published a report arguing that UK opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister, was a bigger threat to UK asset markets than Brexit. MS saw a two thirds chance of a snap UK election in the second half of 2018 when UK can’t secure a satisfactory Brexit deal and the […]


Sterling Soars After Britain, EU Agree On Brexit Divorce Bill: Telegraph

The Telegraph is reporting that British and EU negotiators have reached a deal over the so-called ‘Brexit bill’, opening the door to a potential breakthrough in the talks this December.  According to the report, that the final figure, which is deliberately being left open to interpretation, “will be between €45bn and €55bn, depending on how […]


Cable Crumbles After Government Denies Telegraph Report On Brexit Divorce Bill Agreement

Update: That did not last long. Shortly after The Telegraph report hit the wires, AP reports that Brexit talks between the UK and European Union are continuing as officials played down suggestions that a deal has been reached on the so-called divorce bill.  Reports suggested an agreement in principle has been reached which would see […]


Pound Slides, Then Rebounds, After Hammond Reveals Sharp Cuts To UK GDP Forecast

Update: after the GBP initially dropped on the lower GDP forecasts, it has since rallied after Hammond finished speaking , in what Citi said was a “relief rally” as there were no “banana skins and government safe. Relief trade here.” This was a risk event – while Budget Announcements are normally quite quiet affairs in […]


Budget Preview: Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Impossible Task To “Square The UK’s Circle”

At lunchtime today, Philip Hammond will give the weakened Conservative government’s first budget in the new parliament. Against a likely backdrop of downgrades for the economy from the OBR, the Chancellor will be under immense pressure to provide a sound plan going forward on many issues. As Statista's Martin Armstrong notes, the NHS has already had its […]


UK Cabinet Poised To Increase Brexit Divorce Payment By Another 20 Billion Euros

Theresa’s May’s government is poised to concede an improved Brexit settlement offer to gain EU approval to move the negotiations on to the next stage. May reportedly has the backing of senior ministers ahead of a critical cabinet meeting on Monday afternoon. The list of senior ministers is thought to include chancellor, Philip Hammond, Brexit […]


Manic Tories Trump Monty Python

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, There can be little doubt that the British, in general, have a sense of humor. And that’s perhaps the lens through which we should view the country these days. After all, what other options do we have? A comment yesterday to a Guardian article sums […]


Pound Tumbles As Theresa May Faces Leadership Challenge Over Brexit Chaos

It might be a modest exaggeration it to say that Theresa May’s position as Prime Minister is doomed, but that is the general direction as the newsflow for the British PM remains overwhelmingly bad. Scandals aside, May seems to be falling into the growing gulf between Conservative MPs who are pushing more strongly for a […]


EU Uses Sleazy Negotiating Tactics To Extort More Cash In Brexit Talks

As we discussed (see here) when Brexit talks resumed this week, the EU is piling pressure on Theresa’s May’s weakened government to extort more money out of the UK in the divorce settlement – now termed “moment of clarification” in EU parlance. Despite rumours before the latest talks began, that Theresa May was prepared to […]