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Where European Populism Will Be Strongest In 2018

While the establishment may breathe a sigh of relief looking back at political developments and events in Europe – which was spared some of the supposedly “worst-case scenarios” including a Marine le Pen presidency, a Merkel loss and a Geert Wilders victory – in 2017, any victory laps will have to be indefinitely postponed because […]


Austria’s Anti-Immigrant Freedom Party Enters Government; Wins Key Ministry Posts

Two months ago, in Europe’s latest shocking, anti-establishment outcome, Austria’s 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz became the world’s youngest leader after his conservative People’s Party won the Austrian National Council elections, making him Austria’s youngest Chancellor in history, while the establishment Social Democrat party suffered its “worst result since Hitler rule.” Sebastian Kurz and his girlfriend Susanne […]


Bunga’s Back – Berlusconi’s Case Goes To European Court Of Human Rights

In the Sicilian elections earlier this month, Silvio Berlusconi’s return to a central role in Italy’s political circus took a major step forward with the victory of Nello Musumeci, the candidate backed by the center-right parties, including Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (see “Berlusconi: The Greatest Comeback Since Lazarus?”). As we said at the time. Besides cementing […]


Berlusconi: The Greatest Comeback Since Lazarus?

Only in Italy… exit polls suggest Silvio Berlusconi’s political comeback took an important step forward in the Sicilian elections on Sunday. Expulsion from public office, tax fraud, sex scandals and open heart surgery cannot stop 81-year old Silvio playing a major role in Italy’s political circus. Berlusconi campaigned hard in Sicily and Nello Musumeci, backed […]


Who Feels EU Membership Has Paid Off? (Spoiler Alert: Not Italy)

Amid the UK's Brexit vote and rising right-wing populism across Europe, euroscepticism has never posed a greater threat to the EU. Despite the turmoil, majorities in most countries feel they have benefited from EU membership. According to the European Parliament, 90 percent of people in Ireland feel their country's decision to join the EU has paid […]


Treasuries ‘Cheapest’ In 6 Months As Bund Yields Tumble On Dovish Draghi Taper

Draghi's dovish taper has sent Bund yields down over 5bps (admittedly to 3 day lows) – the biggest daily drop in 3 months…   And EURUSD is at 3-week lows…   And as Bund yields tumble, Treasuries are less exuberant…   Pushing the TSY-Bund yield spreasd to 200bps for the first time since April… Might […]


Meet The 31-Year-Old Austrian Anti-Immigrant Who Just Became The World’s Youngest Leader

As discussed earlier, Austria’s young conservative star, Sebastian Kurz, is now assured of becoming the country’s next leader, projections of Sunday’s parliamentary election result showed, but his party is far short of a majority and is likely to seek a coalition with the resurgent far right. Sebastian Kurz arrives to cast his ballot on Oct. […]


In Historic Result, 31-Year-Old Wins Austrian Elections, Worst Result For Establishment Party Since Hitler Rule

In another stunning defeat for Europe’s establishment, as previewed earlier this morning Austria’s 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz is assured victory in the Austrian National Council elections, becoming Chancellor with his center-right People’s Party set to take roughly 30.2% of the vote – the best result in almost two decades – according  to exit polls by Austrian […]


Meet The 31-Year-Old Austrian Anti-Immigrant Set To Become The World’s Youngest Leader

The front runner in Austria’s Sunday election ended his campaign with a familiar message : Sebastian Kurz pledged to make Austria great again. He is set to become the world’s youngest leader, ahead of France’s Emmanuel Macron, who is 39… oh and North Korea’s 34-year-old Kim Jong-un, of course. “I want to put Austria back […]


Why Germans Voted For The Far-Right ‘AfD’

The main headline from the German election yesterday is not Angela Merkel getting a fourth term in charge, but rather her party's weakened position – caused chiefly by a surge in support for the right wing nationalist party 'Alternative für Deutschland' (AfD). The AfD is a controversial party – one which not only ran on a program […]


Global Stocks Mixed After “Nightmare Victory” For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a “Nightmare Victory” for Merkel and could lead to potentially complicated coalition talks and perhaps even another early election. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names over worries […]


September 25, 2017, Uncategorized
SocGen: “If Anyone Thought That Populism Isn’t A Threat To EU, Today’s Vote Is A Wake-up Call”

Earlier today, we said that as more sellside commentary on today’s startling German election result came out, the knives would be out for the Euro. Sure enough, that’s precisely what happened, and nobody captures the sour mood better than SocGen’s FX strategist Kit Juckes who writes that “if the election of President Macron suggested to […]


In Major Disappointment, Merkel Wins German Election Despite Worst Result Since 1949; AfD Surges To Enter Parliament

The German polls have officially closed, and the first exit polls numbers come in, confirming the expected fourth victory for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, however getting a unexpectedly low 32.5% of the vote, which according to Europe Elects was the worst result for Merkel’s CDU/CSU (EPP) since 1949. Merkel’s main challenger, the SPD, got 20%, also […]


In Major Disappointment, Merkel Wins German Election Despite Worst Result Since 1949; AfD Surges To Enters Parliament

The German polls have officially closed, and the first exit polls numbers come in, confirming the expected fourth victory for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, however getting a unexpectedly low 32.5% of the vote, which according to Europe Elects was the worst result for Merkel’s CDU/CSU (EPP) since 1949. Merkel’s main challenger, the SPD, got 20%, also […]


Why The German Elections Matter, And Not Just For Germany

With just hours to go before the German election, Angela Merkel looks set to remain Chancellor for a record fourth term. This suggests largely unchanged economic policies, focusing on fiscal prudence and conditional steps towards European integration. However, with new political winds clouding the outlook for globalization, trade relationships and security in Europe, and with […]