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US Services Economy Slumps To 15-Month Low, Manufacturing Rebounds

Despite a resurgence in positve surprises in hard macro data, PMIs (and soft survey data) has been fading in recent months and Markit's preliminary December showed a notable divergence in the US economy as Manufacturing rebounded to 2017 highs and Servces slumped to 15-month lows. Higher prices for raw materials resulted in the strongest rate […]


It’s Central Bank Bonanza Day: European Stocks Slide Ahead Of ECB; S&P Futs Hit Record High

One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are […]


Stagflation Looms As PMI Shows Surging Costs And Sinking Growth

Following Manufacturing's drop, the US Services sector PMI disappointed in November, falling to its lowest since June (as business confidence tumbled to its weakest since February). Average selling prices soared as growth slumped setting the scene for a stagflationary future. ISM Services confirmed this weakness, tumbling to 3-month lows. Of course, between Markit and ISM, […]


US PMIs Tumble To 4-Month Lows, Signal Just 2% GDP Growth

After reassuringly positive Eurozone PMIs, US Manufacturing and Services disapointed with the composite PMI slumping to 5-month lows in November. Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 54.6 (55.2 in October). 4-month low. Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 54.7 (55.3 in October). 4-month low. Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 53.8 (54.6 in October). 2-month […]


ISM Services Survey Spikes To 12 Year Highs, PMI Disappoints

In the hazy and mixed world of 'soft' survey data, October's prints have been 'different'. Manufacturing PMI surged while ISM Manufacturing dropped and now Services PMI has flatlined but ISM Services surged to its highest since Aug 2005. As good as it gets?   Take your pick…   Under the hood we see that despite […]


UBS Slams “#FakeEconomics” As PMI Surveys Suggest Economy At 9-Month Highs

Preliminary prints for October Services and Manufacturing in America beat expectations and rose to 2017 highs pushing the composite index to its highest since January. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “The US economy seems to have made a strong start to the final quarter of 2017. […]


ISM Services Spikes To 12-Year Highs – Beats Expectations By 5 Standard Deviations (As PMI Slides)

After the schizophrenic manufacturing data (ISM 13yr highs, PMI unch YoY), Services data was just as fucking ridiculous! UK and EU Services PMIs rose (and beat expectations) but US' September PMI dropped from 56.0 to 55.3. Markit's Services PMI dropped to 55.3 (dragging the composite index lower) as inflationary pressures intensify (highest in 3 years), […]


ISM Survey Says Manufacturing In America Is The Greatest In 13 Years

Following modest drops in UK and EU PMIs (and a mixed picture in China), Markit's US Manufacturing PMI inched higher in September amid schizophrenic collapse in output growth (14mo lows) and surge in employment (9mo highs). ISM, on the other hand, reported that US Manufacturing has not been this awesome since June 2004. Prices Paid […]


Spanish Stocks, Bonds, Euro Sink After Catalan Referendum Fiasco; S&P Futures Rise

While S&P futures were modestly higher, rising 0.1% in a quiet session in which China, South Korea, India and Hong Kong were closed for holidays, the Euro, Spanish stocks and bonds were broadly lower as Spain faces its worst constitutional crisis in years following a dramatic, violent crackdown on Sunday’s Catalan independence referendum in which […]


US Manufacturing “An Increasing Drag On The Economy” As PMI Drops For First Time Since March

Following a stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI print this morning, Markit reports a mixed bag for preliminary September US PMIs with Manufacturing limping higher but Services missing expectations and slipping notably. After 5 straight months of gains, the US Composite PMI dropped back below pre-election levels. As Markit notes, there were signs of underlying fragility in September, […]


One Trader’s “Pathetic Attempt To Justify A Bond Short”

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, For bond bears like myself, yesterday was an ugly day. Fixed income prices ripped higher, egged on by continued escalations of the North Korea situation with an added dose of poor economic reports for good measure. Some dovish Fed talk was the icing on the cake, […]


Stocks Slide After Trump Threatens Government Shutdown Over Wall Funding, Killing NAFTA

Yesterday, when stocks surged at the market open following Politico’s report that Trump is unexpectedly “making strides” on tax reform, we warned that “it can all be wiped away as soon as tonight, when Trump will deliver a speech to his “base”, in which he may promptly burn any of the goodwill he created with […]