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“This is Groundhog Day”: Spanish Stocks Battered By Catalan Vote, Bitcoin Crashes

Spanish stocks and the euro fell, while Spanish government bond yields hit their highest levels in over a month after Catalan secessionists delivered an unexpected blow to the government of Spanish PM Rajoy by winning the Catalan regional election. Meanwhile across the Atlantic, U.S. equity futures and the dollar rose on the last trading session […]


Final Q3 GDP Revised To 3.2%, Highest Since Q1 2015

In the third and final estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy eased back fractionally from last month’s “hot” 3.3% print, and as a result of a modest decline in Personal Consumption from 1.60% to 1.49% (in the GDP calculation) as well as net trade, the final GDP print came in at 3.2%, down slightly […]


Dow Hits Record 24,000, Europe Jumps As Euphoria Returns After Tech Rout

Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which presured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Senate Tax Vote; Euro Inflation; GDP; OPEC, Fed Speakers

It’s a busy week as traders return from the long Thanksgiving holiday, with inflation releases in the Eurozone and Japan. We’ll also get the second estimate of US GDP, housing data and ISM manufacturing, UK monetary aggregates and PMIs in China. Finally, the Russia-OPEC meeting takes place in Vienna on November 30, while the Senate […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]


Why Today’s Big Fed Risk Is A “Dovish Surprise”: One Trader Explains

In our preview of today’s FOMC, we said there is virtually no way the Fed could surprise on the hawkish side, especially with Trump set to unveil Jay Powell as the new head of the Fed: after all, the December rate hike is over 80% priced in at this point. But what about the opposite […]


Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, […]


US Savings Rate Crashes To 10 Year Lows As Spending Surges Most Since ‘Cash For Clunkers’

While incomes grew at an expected 0.4% MoM, US consumers spent at an exuberant 1.0% MoM clip – the biggest monthly rise since Aug 2009 (cash for clunkers). To cover this spending surge, the savings rate tumbled.   The last time – Aug 09 – that spending surged like this was when the government unleashed […]


Goldman Lowers December Rate Hike Odds After CPI Miss

Having been ahead of the market anywhere between 4 and 8 weeks as consensus caught up to Goldman’s view on December rate hike odds, which for months were materially higher than what the market implied, Jan Hatzius quietly emerged as one of the very rare Fed whisperers (this year) who has actually gotten what the […]


The Best Predictor of Future Inflation is Flashing “WARNING!”

The Fed is dramatically understating real inflation. As you know, I’ve been very critical of the Fed’s inflation measures for years. The official inflation measure (Consumer Price Index or CPI) does a horrible job of measuring the actual cost of living for Americans. I have long stated that this is intentional as the purpose of […]


The Best Predictor of Future Inflation is Flashing

The Fed is dramatically understating real inflation. As you know, I’ve been very critical of the Fed’s inflation measures for years. The official inflation measure (Consumer Price Index or CPI) does a horrible job of measuring the actual cost of living for Americans. I have long stated that this is intentional as the purpose of […]


Dollar Ends Best Week Of The Year With A Whimper As Global Stocks Push All Time Highs

The dollar rally paused on Friday and looked poised to finish its best weekly gain of the year with a whimper, when in a repeat of the Thursday session the, Bloomberg dollar index first rose more than 0.1% during Asia hours before slumping around the European open as month and quarter-end flows came into play […]


Final Q2 GDP Comes In At 3.1%, Higher Than Expected

With just two days left until the end of the third quarter, what happened in Q2 will hardly provoke a market reaction, which is why when the BEA announced that the final Q2 GDP print was revised from 3.0% to 3.1%, (or specifically from 3.049% to 3.06%) it hardly inspired a move in risk assets, […]


The Week’s Key Events: European Inflation, US CapEx And Non-Stop Fed Speakers

Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. We also get China PMIs, Japanese CPI and industrial production, the RBNZ meeting and Brexit negotiations (4th). Additionally, there will be monetary policy […]


A Tsunami of Inflation Has Just Appeared on the Horizon

Inflation is coming. It’s taken seven years of ZIRP and over $4 trillion in QE, but the Federal Reserve has finally begun to unleash inflation. It won’t show up in the official inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index CPI for a while. And this is intentional. The Fed knows that CPI doesn’t measure real […]