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“They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction”: One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

With many expecting long-yield to continue declining no matter what, and how many hikes, the Fed and central banks do on the short end, Tommi Utoslahti, a former derivatives trader and analyst and currently one of Bloomberg’s Global Macro squawkers, disagrees and as he writes in his latest Markets Live note below, expects a violent […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


What To Expect From The ECB

Submitted by RanSquawk ECB Monetary Policy Decision Due At 12:45 GMT, 13:45 CET, 07:45 EDT, On Thursday 14th December 2017, Press Conference Due At 13:30 GMT, 14:30 CET, 08:30 EDT Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged.  As a reminder October’s announcement revealed that the Bank will be trimming […]


Loonie Tumbles After BOC Keeps Rates On Hold, Signals “Continued Caution”, “Considerable Uncertainty”

After two rate hikes earlier in the year, one of which caught traders by surprise, moments ago the Bank of Canada announced that it had kept its rate on hold at 1.00% as expected. Stateing that “the global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR)” the central bank […]


Turkey At Risk Of Hyperinflation As CPI Soars To 14-Year High

Turkey’s currency is being battered from all sides at the moment. In October 2017, the Lira fell sharply after both countries suspended bilateral visa processing in the latest US/Turkey diplomatic spat (although this was reversed in early November). Two weeks ago, it fell to a record low of 3.97 to the dollar, prompting the central […]


“When To Worry?”: How Long After The Curve Inverts Does The Recession Begin

The recent (bear) flattening of the US yield curve to levels not seen since before the GFC, a move which has only accelerated in recent weeks as the stock market hit all time highs, has prompted some to question the strength of the US economic cycle, and others to ask outright how long before the […]


US Futures, Global Stocks Extend Decline After Disappointing Chinese Data, Dollar Slides

U.S. index futures declined for the second day in a row, dipping 0.1% to the lowest in more than a week following declines in Asian and European shares. European stocks tried and failed to shrug off the negative sentiment that spurred broad-based declines in Asia following another month of disappointing Chinese macro data… … eventually […]


Loonie Plunges After Bank Of Canada Keeps Rates Unchanged

After two rate hikes earlier in the year, once in July and an unexpected rate hike in September, the Bank of Canada decided to tread lightly, and kept its overnight rate at 1%, as everyone expected stating that "the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate" and changes its hiking tune, warning that "less monetary […]


Bond Yields Break Out Around The World As Japan’s Record Stock Rally Ends

S&P futures are fractionally in the red while traders await President Trump’s pick for Fed chair and more clues on the fate of tax reform; Asian stocks slide, European shares are little changed ahead of tomorrow’s ECB tapering announcement as US 10Y yields finally break out of their multi-month range below 2.40%…   … pushing […]


What Selloff: Futures Rebound, Nikkei Extends Record Winning Streak

European shares are modestly lower as investors monitor tense events in Spain and as focus turns to Thursday’s ECB meeting; US equity futures have rebounded from yesterday’s sharp but shallow selloff and are in the green amid rising odds of U.S. tax reform and the imminent unveiling of the next Fed chair while Asian shares […]


Kevin Warsh May Be The Next Fed Head – Let’s See What He Really Thinks

Authored bvy Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh yesterday to discuss the potential vacancy at the Fed next February. Warsh already has central banking experience, having sat on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from February 2006 […]


How BofA Learned To “Stop Fighting Central Banks” And Love Shorting The Euro

In a new report that may come as music to the ears of Mario Draghi, who has been valiantly hoping to show the European economy recovering while keeping the EURUSD below the “red line” of 1.20, BofA FX strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis is out with a new note today urging currency traders to “stop fighting the […]