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Eric Peters: “Today’s Central Bank Vol Suppression Will End In Spectacular Fashion”

After his provocative admission published earlier that he now checks “Breitbart daily and InfoWars too… You can no longer understand America unless you do“, One River’s CIO Eric Peters published the following anecdote revealing an earlier moment of his life, when as a currency trader, he learned a valuable lesson following the spectacular blow up […]

‘Gold is in a Bear Leg..with an $1800 Target’

originally posted by the Soren K. Group on marketslant.com Moor Report Summary: If the title confuses you, do not be fooled. There is a short term outlook, that can change from day to day, an intermediate outlook that can change week to week, and a long term one. This changes month to month And they are not […]

Options Traders Furiously BFTD!

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, Despite the down day yesterday, one indicator from the equity options market recorded a massive spike in bullishness. We like to track metrics from the various stock options exchanges as a measure of stock market sentiment. Generally, when too many calls are being bought versus puts, it is a warning of […]

The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble

Two weeks ago, we discussed the recent report from Artemis Capital Management, “Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk – Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987”, authored by Christopher Cole. See “In the Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken…The Market Is”. The full report can be accessed here. Perhaps because we posted […]

Summing Up 2017 In Two Record-Breaking Charts

Via LPLResearch.com, What can we say about 2017 that hasn’t been said already, as it continues to smash records? Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “2017 will likely be remembered for two things: a persistent bullish trend and historically low volatility.” In fact, here are two more records that prove that point. The Nasdaq has […]

“It’s A Vicious Cycle”: Goldman Abandons Equity Options Market-Making As Vol Collapses

October is historically the most volatile month of the year, but in 2017 – the average volatility of US equity markets dropped to an all-time record low…   … And you know something's wrong when, just like in early 2007 when the crash in vol killed the swaptions industry – just before all hell broke […]

The Greatest Fear Today: The Lack Of Fear

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, Market crashes often happen not when everyone is worried about them, but when no one is worried about them. Complacency and overconfidence are good leading indicators of an overvalued market set for a correction or worse. Prominent magazine covers are notorious for declaring a boundless bull market […]

BofA: “The Market Implies There Is No Way A Shock Can Happen”

For today’s moment of volatility zen, we go to BofA’s Nikolay Angeloff who drew the short straw to be the (un)lucky pundit whose comments on record complacency, low volatility, etc publicized. Angeloff starts with pointing out what we noted over the weekend , namely that we have now recorded 334 days without a 5% or […]

It’s Time To Take Central Bankers’ “Calm Assurances” With A Pinch Of Salt

"It could be time to fire up your engines," suggests former fund manager Richard Breslow, urging some life back into the seemingly oblivious markets… Via Bloomberg, There’s a lot of uncertainty out there and the response to it shouldn’t be an inability to trade. How about a little frenetic back and forth? We could use […]

The Last Time Stocks Were This Calm, England Won The World Cup

1966 was a big year… Miranda Rights came into being in America, Vietnam War protests raged, the US department of Transportation was created, the mini skirt was invented, Batman and Star Trek debuts, NASA launches Lunar Orbiter 1 – the first U.S. spacecraft to orbit the Moon, race riots raged in Atlanta, Ronald Reagan entered […]

“One Of The Biggest Fears I Have Is I Miss It”: There Is A Sudden Rush To Open Long-Vol Funds

Last month, Soc Gen analyst, Praveen Singh, analyzed evolving cross-asset volatility trends, and boldly went where so many have unsuccessfully gone before. Singh’s warning was that the market is "now entering dangerous volatility regimes." The crux of Soc Gen’s argument was mean reversion, notably that the current low level of volatility happens less than 2% […]

What Wall Of Worry? Goldman Finds Investors Are “Unusually Bullish”

One month after Goldman’s proprietary crash indicator rose to 67%, the highest level since the financial crisis and dot com bubble, and suggesting a crash may be imminent, stocks continue to hit new all time highs, stumping anyone who still believes there is such a thing as an efficient market. So has Goldman thrown in […]

“Black Swan” Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

The Fed's Williams warns that they "don't want there to be excesses in financial markets… " Two quick things… The market has almost never been this expensive… As Peter Boockvar warns: "Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak." And investors have never been more concerned about 'black […]

Protecting Your Blind Side – Hedging & Spitznagel’s Tail Strategy

Authord by 720Global's Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Protecting your Blind Side “The price of protecting quarterbacks was driven by the same forces that drove the price of other kinds of insurance: it rose with the value of the asset insured, with the risk posed to that asset.”  -Michael Lewis, The Blind Side Counter-intuitively, that is often […]

A Market In Which “Shocks No Longer Shock”: Deutsche’s Kocic Explains How To Trade It

Back in June, one of Wall Street’s more philosophical derivatives strategists, DB’s Aleksandar Kocic looked at the state of the market and postulated that far from “stable” the existing risk  “equilibrium” is one which can be described as “metastable“, the result of widespread complacency, and which he compared to an avalanche where “a totally innocuous […]