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The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production

Authored by Ron Patterson via OilPrice.com, This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components. Figure 1: […]


Citi: ‘What If?…”

One month ago, Citi’s credit team laid out its outlook for the coming year in what – in our opinion – was one of the gloomiest reports for the coming year, and included the following fascinating revelation according to which central bankers appears to have lost control: “That seems to be a growing fear among […]


China’s Raging Against Dying Of The Light (Or Why Peak Employment Is Imminent)

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, China's working age population is clearly defined as those aged 16 to 50 years old for females (55 for "white collar" females) and 16 to 60 years old for males.  China mandates retirement at these outer age limits.  Perhaps of some interest should be that this working age population peaked in 2011 and has […]


Sharing Risks To Counter Germany’s Plans Seeing Target2 Collaterilazation With Gold Reserves

Marcello Minenna, a division head at the Italian securities regulator, emailed his plan to "Cure the Eurozone". Despite being quite soft (there will not be permanent transfers between Member States), the recent proposals of the European Commission to deepen integration in the economic and monetary union could meet the opposition of Germany as soon as […]


The 5 Oil Factors To Watch In 2018

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, Oil prices are set to close out the year somewhere around 15 percent up, and the oil market looks more stable than it has in years. But what does 2018 have in store? Most analysts believe more of the same – inventory declines, some shale growth, a gradual increase […]


Japan’s Exports Boom But Inflation Refuses To Follow The Script

Japanese exports boomed in November 2017, rising +16.2% versus a year earlier and beating consensus expectations of +14.7%. It was the fifth straight month of double-digit growth and the strongest since August. Last month, growth of +14.0% had undershot expectations of +15.7%. Imports in November grew slightly less than expected at +17.2% versus the consensus […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


Is The Oil Glut Set To Return?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, For the second month in a row, the IEA has poured cold water onto the oil market, publishing an analysis that suggests 2018 could hold some bearish surprises for crude. The IEA’s December Oil Market Report dramatically revises up the expected growth of U.S. shale, which goes a long […]


It’s Central Bank Bonanza Day: European Stocks Slide Ahead Of ECB; S&P Futs Hit Record High

One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are […]


Almost A Third Of Americans Are Working Beyond Age 65

There is a huge disparity in employment rates among over 65s across different countries… You will find more statistics at Statista As Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, a recent OECD report found that the highest rates of people working beyond 65 are in Asia with Indonesia particularly notable as having a 50.6 percent employment among those in […]


OPEC Reports Lowest Oil Output In Six Months; Fears Shale Production Surge

True to its perpetually optimistic form, OPEC, which last month for the first time conceded the threat posed by rising US shale production… … sharply raised its demand forecast for cartel oil in 2018, ahead of the OPEC meeting at the end of November. And, according to OPEC's latest market report for the month of […]


The Latte Index: Using The Impartial Bean To Value Currencies

Like any other market, there are many opinions on what a currency ought to be worth relative to others. With certain currencies, that spectrum of opinions is fairly narrow. As an example, for the world’s most traded currency – the U.S. dollar – the majority of opinions currently fall in a range from the dollar […]


The One Indicator OPEC Must Watch

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, “We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh. OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing […]


BIS Issues An Alert: Tightening “Paradoxically” Leading To Excessive Risk Taking; Reminds What Happened Last Time

Valuations in asset markets are “frothy” and investors are basking in the “light and warmth” of the “Goldilocks economy”, believing that nothing can upset a future of “sustained growth and low interest rates”. We observe a heavy dose sarcasm from the media briefing coinciding with the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) latest quarterly review. Specifically, […]


Stockman: Debt, Taxes, Growth, And The GOP Con Job

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, During more than four decades in Washington and on Wall Street it is quite possible that we never picked up any useful skills. But along the way we did unavoidably acquire what amounts to a survival tool in those fair precincts – namely, a nose for the con job. And what a […]