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What You’re Not Being Told About The Real Economy

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners, The year 2000 was a transition year in a lot of ways. Though Y2K amounted to mild mass hysteria, people did have to get used to writing the date with 20 in front of the year rather than 19. It was a new millennium (depending on your […]


November Payrolls Jump 228K, Beat Expectations But Wage Growth Disappoints

In a continuation of the recent theme shown by the labor market, the BLS reported that November payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 228K, beating expectations of 200K, if lower than October’s downward revised 244K (from 261K) while September was revised up from +18,000  to +38,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


October Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings Miss Big Despite Strong Upward Revisions

Well, with virtually everyone expecting a 300K+ payrolls number after last month’s negative hurricane-distorted print, and with whispers of a 400K print floating around, it only made sense that not only would payrolls disppoint, printing at 261K, one standard deviation below the 310K consensus estimate (and that even with a whopping 89,000 waiters and bartenders […]


Dovish, Neutral Or Hawkish: Here Is Your Last Minute FOMC Cheat Sheet

As we previewed earlier this morning, today’s FOMC announcement will most likely be a snooze-fest, with consensus expecting the Fed to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00-1.25% as it continues to evaluate to what degree recent disinflation is temporary or persistent. As several trading desks have opined, the committee […]


Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, […]


Global Markets Bounce As Germany, China, Spain Lift World Stocks, Turkey Crash Ignored

With no North Korean nuclear test over the weeknd contrary to a Friday morning rumor, S&P futures rebounded and edged higher as European stocks gain, led by Spanish shares after mass demonstrations in favor of Spanish unity and speculation Catalonia may back down on unilateral independence demands, while Chinese mainland stocks reopened catching up to […]


Goldman Raises December Rate Hike Odds To 80%

Having pointed out a glaring error in today’s payrolls report, which indicated that there was at least one math error in calculating the average hourly earnings number, and as a result casts doubt on every other piece of data released by the BLS, we urge algos and the handful of carbon-based traders, to take anything […]


September “Hurricane” Payrolls Tumble 33,000, First Drop In Seven Years, As Wages Surge Due To Labor Shortages

As noted earlier, Wall Street was completely clueless ahead of today’s payroll, with most expecting a small positive print but two brave forecasters went so far as to predict that the recent hurricanes would result in a negative print, and sure enough, moments ago the BLS reported that in September, the US economy lost 33,000 […]


Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red – as they have been every day this […]


Previewing The September “Hurricane-Disrupted” Jobs Report

Tomorrow’s hurricane-affected September jobs report will be… confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: A Negative Payrolls Number And Non-stop Fed Speakers

While central banks step away from the spotlight, as does Asian data and markets with China and South Korea both taking a weeklong break, there will be a bevy of central bank speakers to “explain” what is going on while it will be a busy week data wise, with the US employment trade balance report […]


August ISM Data Suggests U.S. GDP Growth Might Hit 4%

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com   Remember when critics lambasted Trump for daring to forecast 3%+ GDP growth? Yeah, those people just got eternally beatdown. Second quarter GDP was revised up to 3%. The only thing the left could do is peddle out Warren Buffett, a person who has never said a bad thing about […]


Ugly Jobs Report: August Payrolls Miss, Slide To 156K; Hourly Earnings Also Disappoint

We warned readers yesterday to “Prepare For Disappointment” with today’s jobs report, and sure enough that’s precisely what we got when moments ago the BLS reported that in August just 156K jobs were created, a big miss to the 180K expected, and following a sharp downward revision to June and July, which were revised to […]