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Global Bond Rout Eases As Nervous Traders Watch For “Selling On The Tax News”, Catalan Vote

U.S. equity futures are little changed with the GOP Tax Plan now a done deal and no more daily “pricing in” of tax reform possible, as traders nerviously look to see if others will now be “selling the news”, a preview of which we got yesterday when US equity indexes closed red across the board […]

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

Global Dollar Liquidity Shortage Explodes – Worse Than European Crisis

Very quietly, in the last few days, cross currency basis swaps (CCBS) related to the dollar have reversed their rise and started collapsing deeper into negative territory… again. This might not be of much interest to buyers of global equity markets at this point, but it is signalling ominous signs of growing funding stress in […]

After $150 Billion Buying Binge, ‘Tokyo Whale’ Seen Paring Back ETF Purchases In 2018

A few months ago, we noted that the Bank of Japan had decided to throw every textbook out of the window and crank their plunge-protection to ’11’after reports surfaced that they owned a staggering 75% of Japan’s ETFs. The BOJ first started their buying spree in December 2010 – when they held no ETFs at […]

Enron 2.0? ECB, Global Banks On The Hook For $21 Billion In Steinhoff Implosion

Earlier this week we reported that as part of the stunning, unexpected collapse of South African retail giant Steinhoff, which also owns France-based Conforama furniture chain, Mattress Firm in the U.S. and Poundland in the U.K., none other than the ECB was unveiled as owning an unknown amount of its recently issued €800 million in […]

Frontrunning: November 29

North Korea Missile Launch Shows Ability to Reach D.C. (WSJ) Senate Republicans shove tax bill ahead as Democrats fume (Reuters) British negotiators still working on Brexit deal: Treasury minister (Reuters) Trump Retweets Anti-Muslim Videos From Far-Right U.K. Group (BBG) Bitcoin Futures Provoke Pushback From Market Cops (BBG) Saudis Free Detainees in Sign of Resolutions in […]

Why Capital Controls Usually Fail, China Versus Bitcoin Edition

In September 2015, we first brought the world's attention to the quasi-capital controls being implemented by Chinese authorities, and more importantly, the way in which Chinese citizens were skirting those controls… using Bitcoin: Yes, bitcoin may be slowly but surely leaving the domain of the libertarian fringe, but in exchange it is about to be […]

Could Italy’s Banking Crisis Drag Down Mario Draghi?

Authored by Don Quijones via WolfStreet.com,  Just don’t mention “Antonveneta.” A blame game has begun in Italy that risks casting a bright light on the leadership of both the Bank of Italy and Italy’s financial markets regulator Consob. The controversial decision to award the central bank’s current Chairman Ignazio Visco a fresh six-year mandate despite […]

China Slashes Import Tariffs on Consumer Goods In Boost For Trump And Western Exporters

China announced it is slashing import tariffs on 187 consumer products starting next month. The Finance Ministry pointed to the cuts being concentrated in products in short supply domestically which, it believes, will prompt local producers to improve quality. The items in the list which, includes baby formula, diapers, electric toothbrushes, medicines, cosmetics, coffee machines […]

The Five Biggest Tests For China’s Next Central Bank Governor

Zhou Xiaochuan’s long reign as PBoC Governor is drawing to a close. He signaled his impending retirement last month and will be seventy years old In January 2018. Zhou has headed up China’s central bank from the early days of China’s “growth miracle” in 2002 and successfully – thanks to massive credit creation – steered […]

China Deleveraging Hits Corporate Bonds As Cascade Effect Begins

Following the market lockdown during October’s Party Congress, many commentators were disturbed by the continued rise in Chinese government bond yields as we returned to “business as usual”, with the 10-year rising to 4%. At the beginning of this month, we discussed the sell-off (see “China: Shadow Bank Inflows Are Critical To Sustain The Ponzi…But […]

India’s Sovereign Bond Market In Trouble As Inflation Rebound Surprises

Another day and another Indian inflation reading comes in “hotter” than markets expected. Yesterday, India’s CPI printed at 3.58% for October 2017 – its highest level in seven months – versus the consensus expectation of 3.43%. The September 2017 reading was 3.28%, itself marking a strong rebound from the recent low of 1.46% in June […]

From “BTFD” To “Sell The Rip”: Global Stocks Slide, Nikkei Tumbles, Pound Plunges

S&P futures gave up early gains and were trading down -0.2%, as Donald Trump completes his first Asian tour and as pressure mounts on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, sending the pound plunging. European stocks fell, tracking many Asian shares as the Nikkei plunge accelerated. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell as much as 0.4%, […]

Venezuela Just 24 Hours Away From Formal Declaration Of Default

Less than a week after Venezuela shocked the world by announcing it would proceed to restructure its massive external debt, even as it was within the grace period on hundreds of millions in unpaid interest expense, on Thursday the socialist nation confirmed it has never been closer to an official default after Reuters reported that […]

World Stocks Soar To New Record Highs As Oil, Metals Surge Ahead Of The Fed

US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs on Wednesday, with the MSCI’s world […]