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The Big Problem With The GOP Tax Cut, Charted

While the jury will be out for years whether the Trump tax cuts will boost the economy (they already had an outsized impact on markets, pushing the Dow by nearly 5,000 points higher since Trump’s election), there are several key problems that remain outstanding. The first one, as the following JPMorgan chart shows, is that […]


The Coming Fiscal Derailment – Stockman Explains Why FY 2019 Will Sink The Casino

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Since last November 8th the Russell 2000 has risen by 30% and the net Federal debt has expanded by an astounding $1.0 trillion dollars. In a rational world operating with honest financial markets those two results would not be found in even remotely the same zip code; and especially not in month #102 of […]


The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


Jeffrey Gundlach Warns “The Goldilocks Era Is Over”

Authored by Robert Huebscher via AdvisorPerspectives.com, Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central banks reverse their quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates, this “Goldilocks era” will come to an end, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer […]


Stephen Roach Warns “Complacency Will Be Tested In 2018”

Authored by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate, Despite seemingly robust indicators, the world economy may not be nearly as resilient to shocks and systemic challenges as the consensus view seems to believe. In particular, the absence of a classic vigorous rebound from the Great Recession means that the global economy never recouped the growth lost […]


Asset Prices Are ‘Prices’ Too…

Authored by Thorstein Polleit via The Mises Institute, We live in inflationary times. Some people might consider this statement controversial. This is because these days inflation is widely understood as a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) of more than 2 percent per year. However, there are convincing reasons to question this viewpoint. On […]


The 30-Years Bubble – Why America Ain’t That Rich

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner, The entire financial and economic narrative in today's Bubble Finance world is virtually context- and history-free; it's all about the short-term deltas and therefore exceedingly misleading and dangerous. So when a big trend or condition is negative and unsustainable, you generally can't even get a glimpse of it from the so-called "high-frequency" weekly, monthly and […]


The $10 Trillion Investment Plan To Integrate The Eurasian Supercontinent

Authored by Federico Pieraccini of Strategic Culture The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), by lending out money using an alternative currency to the dollar, opens up huge spaces for investment and the strategic transformation of the region. The overland integration of the BRI, led by China and Russia, aims to create different transit routes […]


JPMorgan’s Outlook For 2018: “Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019…”

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, “rationally exuberant“, with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows… Bank of Montreal, Brian Belski, 2,950, EPS $145.00, P/E 20.3x UBS, […]


Stockman On America’s Fiscal Sundown, Part 1

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The Senate Finance Committee tax bill is not supply side and it's not even a tax cut; it's a gimmick-ridden policy mongrel that smells to high heaven of political desperation and cynicism. Contrary to the Donald's delusional promise that the American people will get some tax cut sugar plums for Christmas, […]


Learning From The ’80s: The Power And Irony Of “MDuh”

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates. Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates – primarily M1 but occasionally M2, […]


Stockman Slams “The Awesome Recovery” Narrative

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, One of the great philosophers of recent times was surely Sgt. Easterhaus of "Hill Street Blues". As he assigned his men to their daily rounds in the crime infested streets of the Big Apple he always ended the precinct's morning call with his signature admonition: "Let's be carful […]


Bond Bears & Why Rates Won’t Rise

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Here we go again… Since June of 2013, I have been writing about the reasons why rates can’t rise much and why calls for the end of the “bond bull market” remain wrong. Regardless, about every 3-months or so, there is a tick up in rates and you can […]


Stockman Exposes “The Black Swan In Plain Sight” – Debt Out The Wazoo

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The black swan in plain sight does emit the Donald's orangish glow, but at the end of the day its true color is actually red. That is, monumental towers of rapidly rising debt loom everywhere on the planet. For the moment, the artificial cash flow from this unsustainable borrowing spree is keeping a simulacrum of growth […]


Can Gradual Interest-Rate Tightening Prevent A Bust?

Authored by Frank Shostak via The Mises Institute, Fed policy makers are of the view that if there is the need to tighten the interest rate stance the tightening should be gradual as to not destabilize the economy. The gradual approach gives individuals plenty of time to adjust to the tighter monetary stance. This adjustment […]