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Gresham’s Law

Authored by Ted Rivelle via TCW.com, This year’s Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Richard Thaler, a pioneer of behavioral economics. But there is a tale told by a lesser known Nobel laureate, Kenneth Arrow. As a World War II weather officer, he was tasked with analyzing the reliability of the army’s long-range weather […]


JPM Short Circuits & Banks Bump Up Into a Glass Ceiling as Semis Soar, Bitcoin Blasts & Block-Brain’d Sir Jamie Eats Crypto Crow

JP Morgan (JPM)   Having notched an all-time high by closing at 97.35 on 10/3, JPM appeared to be consolidating over the next 6 sessions – in preparation for another surge higher. But 10/12’s Q3 earnings release session suggests that immediate bullish momentum may have been exhausted and, with it, Sir Jamie’s next (ever-so-lovable and antithetically […]


BofA Beats Despite 22% Plunge in FICC Revenue, Credit Loss Provision Jumps 15%

Mirroring the pattern set by JPM and Citi yesterday, Bank of America reported revenue and earnings that modestly beat expectations, with Q3 revenue of $21.8BN and $22.1BN on an adjusted, FTE basis, just above the $21.9BN consensus estimate, generating net income of $5.6 billion (up 13% Y/Y), and EPS of $0.48, above the $0.46 estimate, […]


JPMorgan FICC Revenues Plunge 27%, “Low Volatility” Blamed

Launching Q3 earnings season, moments ago JPM reported third quarter Net Income of $6.7 billion and EPS of $1.76, beating expectations $1.67 and 18 cents, or 7% higher than a year ago, on “managed” revenue of $26.2 BN, beating consensus expectations of $25.7 BN, up 3% from the $25.5BN in Q3 2016 revenue . JPM […]


Chris Whalen On The CDO-Redux & Inevitable “Catastrophic Systemic Risk Event”

Authored by Chris Whalen via The Institutional Risk Analyst, “The great wheel of circulation is altogether different from the goods which are circulated by means of it. The revenue of the society consists altogether in those goods, and not in the wheel which circulates them”   Adam Smith, 1811 This week in The Institutional Risk […]


Citi Warns Trading Revenue To Tumble 15% In Q3 Due To “Subdued Volatility”

Exactly three months ago, in mid-June, Citigroup CFO John Gerspach warned investors at a Morgan Stanley investment conference that Citi’s second quarter trading revenues would be down 12-13%, mostly due to declining market volatility. A few weeks later, he was proven right when US banks – and especially Goldman Sachs – posted some of the […]


An Unexpected Problem Emerges: Chinese Banks Exhaust 80% Of Loan Quotas In First Half Of 2017

When we discussed the latest monthly Chinese credit data reported by the PBOC, we pointed out something which to most pundits was broadly seen as success by the Politburo in its deleveraging efforts: for the first time in 9 months, debt within China’s shadow banking system – defined as the sum of Trust Loans, Entrusted […]