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Stocks Rebound From “Bama Shock”, All Eyes On Yellen’s Last Rate Hike

After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP’s Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again […]


Small Business Optimism Spikes To Highest Since 1983, There’s Just One Thing…

The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey hit this morning and it surged to near record highs…   With Small Businesses having never been so excited to hire people ever… Construction, manufacturing and professional services registered notable increases in planned hiring. The figures indicate the recent solid pace of job growth will be sustained and help […]


Futures Flat As FOMC Meeting Begins; Brent Jumps Over $65 For First Time Since 2015

E-mini futures are modestly in the green this morning, though net of fair value the S&P index is poised for another record high open as the FOMC begins its last meeting for 2017 in which it is expected to raise rates by 25bps. European stocks gain while Asian equities slide led by weakness in Chinese […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Yellen’s Swan Song And Final Rate Hike; Draghi’s Silence, US Inflation

After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]


Where The Jobs Were In November: Who’s Hiring… Who Isn’t

Assuming that the BLS’ estimate of avg hourly warnings growing only 0.2% in November is accurate, it would imply that – as has often been the case – the bulk of job growth in November took place in minimum-paying and other low-wage jobs. However, a breakdown of jobs added by industry shows the contrary to […]


Global Stocks Tumble, Asia Plunges On Chinese Commodity Carnage

The euphoria of the past month has ended with a thud and BTFDers are strangely missing as the commodity chill out of China (which overnight became full blown carnage), has unleashed a global risk-off phase ahead of today’s critical CPI data, resulting in broad and sharp selling across global markets, as European stocks followed declines […]


US Futures, Global Stocks Extend Decline After Disappointing Chinese Data, Dollar Slides

U.S. index futures declined for the second day in a row, dipping 0.1% to the lowest in more than a week following declines in Asian and European shares. European stocks tried and failed to shrug off the negative sentiment that spurred broad-based declines in Asia following another month of disappointing Chinese macro data… … eventually […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]


Goldman Still Sees 65% Chance Of Tax Reform Passing; Expects Senate To Make These Changes…

After a wave of GOP defections in recent days and waffling on timing, Goldman’s economics team apparently still sees a 65% chance of a tax reform bill being enacted by “early 2018,” but warns that the final bill may look nothing like the one recently proposed by the House. As we pointed out yesterday (see: […]


“The S&P Is Up 21% Since Trump’s Election” And Other Market Anniversary Observations

November 8 will mark the one year anniversary of one of the biggest political shocks in US history: the election of Donald Trump. Since that improbable victory, which so many experts had said would lead to a market crash, the S&P 500 has soared by 21% according to Goldman which calculates that the Trump rally […]


European Stocks On Edge Ahead Of Catalan Independence Call, S&P Futures Rise

S&P futures are again modestly in the green as European shares hold steady ahead of a meeting of the Catalan regional parliament and a possible declaration of independence by Catalan leader Puigdemont, while Asian shares rise a the second day. The dollar declined for the 3rd day, its losses accelerating across the board amid growing […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: CPI, Retail Sales And FOMC Minutes

In the traditionally quiet post-payrolls week, attention will focus on the US CPI report, retail sales and FOMC minutes as well as the Catalonia vote and Eurozone industrial production. Separately, we have UK construction, Chinese PMIs, Japanese BoP and inflation in the Scandies. A breakdown of the key events this week from BofA: FOMC minutes […]


World Stocks Pull Back Amid Rising Concerns Of A Market Correction

For the first day in three S&P futures have pulled back modestly from record levels as some investors cautioned that gains had gone too far, too fast, European shares are mixed while Asian equities extended their longest rising streak in almost two months as continued gains in Japan and India offset the losses in Hong […]


World Stocks Hit Fresh Record High As Irma, Korea Rally Continues; Pounds Surges

World stocks hit new record highs on Tuesday amid a continuation of Monday’s risk-on theme which unleashed a dramatic relief rally on easing North Korea tensions and signs that Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared (which according to Keynesians should be GDP negative). The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.2%, hitting the highest on […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: BOE, SNB, Inflation And Retail Sales

In a somewhat quieter week for economic news, this week’s focus is on BoE and SNB policy meetings as well as on inflation releases in US, UK, China and others. Other releases of note include retail sales in the US, UK and China along with industrial production in US, Eurozone & China. Key events: Tuesday: […]