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Cometh The Hour, Cometh An Insane Cash-Hating Fed Governor – Nobody’s “Goodfriend”

Marvin Goodfriend is not a Fed governor yet, but it’s likely asking far too much to expect US lawmakers to block President Trump’s nomination. Unfortunately for the American citizenry, Goodfriend (not) has all the establishment credentials which will likely see the nomination rubber-stamped: economic advisor to the White House (1984-5), director of research at the […]


Moody’s Warns U.S. Office Real Estate At “Cyclical Tipping Point” That Will Devastate CMBS Market

We’ve frequently written about the growing supply problem in the major commercial real estate markets across the country (for example: NYC Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunge Over 50% As Owners Lever Up In The Absence Of Buyers).  Now it seems that Moody’s is also growing somewhat concerned that growing supply, combined with waning demand and […]


The Yellen Put – Friend Or Foe?

Authored by Chris Whalen via The Institutional Risk Analyst, The term “Greenspan Put” was coined after the stock market crash of 1987 and the subsequent bailout of Long Term Capital Management in 1998. The Fed under Chairman Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates following the fabled event of default and life continued.  The idea of the Greenspan […]


The “Other” Side of Asymmetry You Never Hear About

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at Everyone’s heard of “The Big Short”. We’ve Hollywood to thank for that, and thank them I will. After all, who didn’t love Margot Robbie explaining how it all worked? Even Mrs. Chris liked her. Of course, our heroes correctly bet against these mortgage backed securities smoking piles of isht and now they […]


So Why Did Capital One “Suddenly” Exit Mortgage Lending??

Last week, Capital One Financial (COF) announced that is was formally withdrawing from the residential mortgage loan market.  Some observers mistook this announcement for news, thinking that COF had actually been engaged in residential lending in a serious way.  Housing Wire, for example, reported that COF had “suddenly” exited the mortgage and home equity business. […]


Happy Black Friday

Amsterdam | As the financial world happily fixates on who will be the next Fed Chairman, I am in Europe celebrating the 30th anniversary of Black Friday, October 19, 1987. Three decades ago, I was on a trading desk at Bear, Stearns & Co in London along with David, Joey, Gregory, Peter and Paul, among […]


The Tale Of Two Americas – Urban Rise, Rural Demise, & The Rationale To Hyper-Monetize

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, (The following was written as an outline for a potential book.  To this point no publisher has shown interest and time and funds have run out.) America is in the midst of an ongoing and accelerating shift in demographics and population growth.  These trends, long in place, are at […]


“Dear Fed, Hike Slower… Shrink Faster…”

Authored by Peter Tchir via Brean Capital LLC, Dear Fed, Stop with Rate Hikes and Reduce Balance Sheet We think that the Fed should focus on steepening the yield curve.  That keeping short term rates constant while focusing on balance sheet reduction would benefit the most people and the economy. Effectively, it is time for […]


What Does The QE Experience Say About Rates In A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet World?

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, The Federal Reserve is likely to decide next week to begin letting assets roll of its balance sheet as bonds mature, instead of reinvesting the proceeds. This means that the balance sheet will begin to shrink in size and other market participants will be forced to […]


Housing Bubble Symmetry: Look Out Below

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Housing markets are one itsy-bitsy recession away from a collapse in domestic and foreign demand by marginal buyers. There are two attractive delusions that are ever-present in financial markets: One is this time it's different, because of unique conditions that have never ever manifested before in the […]