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Tax Reform & The “Japanification” Of America

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On Friday, Kevin Brady of the House Ways and Means Committee was on my radio program discussing the “Tax Cuts & Jobs Act” bill which was released later in the day. Here are the details of the release he referenced in the interview. Of course, the real question is how are […]


Beware The Falling Knives: The ECB Has Some Bad News For Junk Bond Buyers

Two weeks ago, as part of our continuing coverage of the Steinhoff fiasco in which it emerged that the ECB was the mystery and (not so) proud buyer of just issued Steinhoff (now junk) bonds (maturing in 2025 but set for bankruptcy much sooner) and which lost more than half of their value overnight when […]


The ECB Has Some Bad News For Junk Bond Buyers

Two weeks ago, as part of our continuing coverage of the Steinhoff fiasco in which it emerged that the ECB was the mystery and (not so) proud buyer of just issued Steinhoff (now junk) bonds (maturing in 2025 but set for bankruptcy much sooner) and which lost more than half of their value overnight when […]


Three Charts That SCREAM “Inflation” In 2018

The financial system is preparing for an inflationary shock. The single best means of measuring inflation vs deflationary forces in the US financial system is the TIP to Long-Treasury (TLT) ratio. When this ratio rallies the system is predicting inflation. When it falls, the system is fearing deflation. Running back to 2010, we’ve been in […]


Rising Interest Rates Starting To Bite

Submitted by Gary Evans of Global Macro Monitor We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 dividend yield this past week for the first […]


The View From 2017’s Bridge: What Clive Hale Learned This Year

Authored by Clive Hale via The View From The Bridge blog, As long time readers will know we do not put much credence in end of year forecasts; nor in fact forecasts in general; the Fed and the Met Office being stand out examples. As an alternative to what is going to happen in 2018 […]


2018: The Year Central Banks Begin Buying Cryptocurrency

Authored by Eugene Etsebeth via CoinDesk.com, Behind closed doors, G7 central banks are sluggish traders that buy and sell the same foreign currencies, marketable securities, special drawing rights (SDR) and gold day in and day out. Central bank traders follow the investment policy enforced by the executive committees with specific asset allocation targets. In order […]


Morgan Stanley: These Are The 5 Cs That Will Shape 2018

Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya, global co-head of economics, who undeterred by Morgan Stanley’s dire credit outlook, is especially optimistic about the coming year, and in today’s Sunday Start writes that the bank’s key call for 2018 is that “the global cycle will stay stronger for longer” and explains that his constructive view is borne out […]


Jeffrey Gundlach Warns “The Goldilocks Era Is Over”

Authored by Robert Huebscher via AdvisorPerspectives.com, Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central banks reverse their quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates, this “Goldilocks era” will come to an end, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer […]


Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]


And So Begins The Rug-Yank Phase Of Fed Policy

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, The political differences of today’s leading two parties are not over ultimate questions of principles.  Rather, they’re over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice.  For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing while pretending to […]


Bill Blain’s 2018 Outlook: “We Don’t Think 2018 Is Going To Be The End Of The World”

Via Bill Blain, It’s traditional to end the year with an outlook on what the next is likely to bring. We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new […]


Bill Blain: “I Have Never Seen So Many Extraordinary Events In One Year, And I’ve Been In Markets Since 1985!”

Via Bill Blain of Mint Partner, We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new MiFID regime – isn’t everyone? (US Readers…..) Our broad brush picture is a continuation […]


European, Asian Stocks Slide But US Futures Rebound As Tax Deal Fears Ease

U.S. equity index futures point to a higher open, having rebounded some 10 points off session lows with the VIX stuck on the edge between single and double digits, while European and Asian shares decline as investors assess central banks’ shift toward tighter monetary policy and concern over tax overhaul ahead of final plan.  It […]


Some Ex-Cons Are Finally Finding Jobs: But Does The Fed Care?

While CNN doesn’t dedicate much time to covering the subject, we’ve repeatedly pointed out that, contrary to what conventional wisdom might lead one to believe, incarceration rates among white Americans have risen since 2000 while incarceration rates for minorities have fallen. The US prison population is finally shrinking after swelling to more than 2 million […]