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Bank of Japan Decision Preview: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

Submitted by RanSquawk The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will conclude its final policy meeting of 2017 at some point on Thursday. The BoJ is expected to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged as it has done for the entirety of 2017, which would see the Bank maintain its QQE with Yield Curve Control (YCC) and […]


Bitcoin as a monetary policy tool

If you look from a systemic perspective, Bitcoin has been nothing more than another electronic asset bubble, while not a QE tool explicitly used by the Fed – it has accomplished the same thing, but much faster.  What took decades and years for QE to do in other markets, Bitcoin did inside of a few […]


Its 2007 Redux – What Is Your Excuse This Time?

Here we go again, again.   The unemployment rate is at a historic low.  GDP is above 3% and with the recently enacted historic tax cuts, poised to go much higher.  Inflation is at the Federal Reserve’s target.  Housing starts and sales are booming and housing supply is at an all-time low.  Equities are hitting […]


“In The End, There Was Absurdity” – The Great Crash Of 2018?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen, op-ed via Huffington Post, Crises always take longer to arrive than you think, and then happen much quicker than they ought to. – Rudiger Dornbusch An eerie calm has taken over the world markets. Volatility is crashing, and economic and political shocks come and go without any noticeable effect on the […]


Eight Axioms To Understand The Fake Economy

Authored by Bill Bonner via Bonner & Partners, What have we learned so far? Let’s spell it out as a series of axioms. Real money must be connected to the real economy of energy, time, and resources. Traditionally, gold makes the connection. (In the case of bitcoin, electricity is the connector.) Time, energy, and resources […]


Riksbank Formally Ends QE But Pledges Continued Dovish Support For Bond Market

While the Riksbank left its repo rate unchanged at -0.5%, as expected, in its decision this morning, far more interesting was the Riksbank’s decision to formally end making new bond purchases, i.e., QE, after almost three years. However, in order to ensure a smooth transition, the Riksbank said the end of QE would take place […]


Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]


Are Bonds Really On The Run? Why One Trader Is Skeptical

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader. So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen’s FX strategist, […]


How Government Inaction Ended The Depression Of 1921

Authored by Lew Rockwell via Mises Canada, As the financial crisis of 2008 took shape, the policy recommendations were not slow in coming: why, economic stability and American prosperity demand fiscal and monetary stimulus to jump-start the sick economy back to life. And so we got fiscal stimulus, as well as a program of monetary […]


How The Asset Bubble Could End – Part 1

Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, Another Shoeshine Boy Moment We recently pondered the markets while trying out our brand-new electric soup-cooling spoon (see below). We are pondering the markets quite often lately, because we believe tail risk has grown by leaps and bounds and we may be quite close to an important juncture, i.e.,  […]


2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]


Doug Kass’ 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump

Authored Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, "The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory [is] the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context . . . finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment . . . soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been […]


Global Stocks Rise To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Yesterday we joked that with the US House of Representatives set to vote for the GOP tax bill on Tuesday, markets would “price in” the same tax legislation they have been pricing in every day for the past year, all over again… Get ready for US markets to price in tax reform all over again […]


The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


Is Bitcoin The Answer?

Authored by Paul Tustain via BullionVault.com, Governments have abused and distorted our money. How about a 'Bitcoin standard'…? THIS is a subsection of a book that's coming later. It seemed worth publishing now,  writes Paul Tustain, founder and chairman of BullionVault and co-founder of WhiskyInvestDirect. What is money? Strangely, for something with which we are all so familiar, […]