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How Government Inaction Ended The Depression Of 1921

Authored by Lew Rockwell via Mises Canada, As the financial crisis of 2008 took shape, the policy recommendations were not slow in coming: why, economic stability and American prosperity demand fiscal and monetary stimulus to jump-start the sick economy back to life. And so we got fiscal stimulus, as well as a program of monetary […]


2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]


Tax Reform & The “Japanification” Of America

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On Friday, Kevin Brady of the House Ways and Means Committee was on my radio program discussing the “Tax Cuts & Jobs Act” bill which was released later in the day. Here are the details of the release he referenced in the interview. Of course, the real question is how are […]


Three Charts That SCREAM “Inflation” In 2018

The financial system is preparing for an inflationary shock. The single best means of measuring inflation vs deflationary forces in the US financial system is the TIP to Long-Treasury (TLT) ratio. When this ratio rallies the system is predicting inflation. When it falls, the system is fearing deflation. Running back to 2010, we’ve been in […]


This Time Is Different – Part II: What Bitcoin Really Is

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via Medium.com, To me and many others, bitcoin is not a technical revolution as much as it is a triumph of political and economic incentives. -Two Bit Idiot   “Systems like Ethereum (and Bitcoin and NXT, and Bitshares, etc) are a fundamentally new class of cryptoeconomic organisms?—?decentralized, jurisdictionless entities that exist […]


Why Deutsche Thinks 2017 “Was The Most Boring Year Ever”

As part of the macro forecast in his just released 2018 Credit Outlook (more on that in a subsequent post), DB’s Jim Reid first looks back at the almost concluded 2017 and muses that “whichever way you cut it, it’s likely that 2017 will go down as one of, if not the least, volatile year […]


Learning From The ’80s: The Power And Irony Of “MDuh”

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates. Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates – primarily M1 but occasionally M2, […]


BofA: The Liquidity Supernova Is Ending, “This Is The Biggest Risk of All”

If 2017 has had a surreal feel to it, it is because it has so far been a “perfect encapsulation of 8-year QE-led bull market” according to BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, a “bull market” which has turned financial logic and fundamental economic relationships on their head, and replaced everything with copious money creation […]


Can Gradual Interest-Rate Tightening Prevent A Bust?

Authored by Frank Shostak via The Mises Institute, Fed policy makers are of the view that if there is the need to tighten the interest rate stance the tightening should be gradual as to not destabilize the economy. The gradual approach gives individuals plenty of time to adjust to the tighter monetary stance. This adjustment […]


“This Is The Catalyst For Everything”: Deutsche Sees Only Two More Rate Hikes Before The Fed Loses Control

In his latest weekend note, One River CIO Eric Peters discussed, among other topics, what he thought would be the nightmare scenario if not for the current, then certainly next Fed chairman: a world in which despite the Fed’s best intentions (and we use the term loosely), the Fed continued to hike rates without any […]


Morgan Stanley Sees “Greater Risk For A Correction Than We’ve Seen In A While”…But There’s A Catch

As U.S. equity markets casually melt up to all new highs with each passing day, Morgan Stanley Equity Strategist Michael Wilson, whose 2,550 year-end price target from back in August was just breached in a matter of months, says he’s getting somewhat concerned given Fed tightening, tax cut legislation that looks increasingly unlikely to pass, […]


“Investors Can’t Get Enough Sugar Crisp” – Mish “Prefers Gold”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk (at their new site – www.themaven.net/mishtalk), P/E ratios are in the stratosphere. Trump struggles to pass his agenda. In the EU, Italian banks are insolvent. Italy may even leave the Eurozone if Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement wins the next election. Who cares? Currently, the Fed plays tiptoe with rate […]


Science Tells Us This Is All True

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, On April 30, 1934, under pressure from Italian-American lobby groups, the United States Congress passed a law enshrining Columbus Day as a national holiday. President Franklin Roosevelt quickly signed the bill into law, and the very first Columbus Day was celebrated in October of that year. Undoubtedly people had […]


Gallo Warns: A Volatility Trap Is Inflating Market Bubbles

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Bloomberg.com, A number of markets show not only elevated valuations, but also irrational investor behavior… Investors face a conundrum: The world is experiencing a record synchronous growth phase, but an increasing number of assets are becoming overvalued just as fundamental risks lurk in the background. Should investors continue to dance […]


Robots Have Ushered In An Era Of “Cocaine Deflation” On Wall Street

Authored by Brazilian Police have stumbled into a cocaine workshop with robots packing 150,000 cocaine baggies per day. The era of cocaine deflation is upon Wall Street, as drug lords in Brazil are betting on automation to ramp up production. Source: StockBoardAsset Perhaps this 'automation' is why Brazil's cocaine prices have suffered such a deflationary […]