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Doug Kass’ 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump

Authored Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, "The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory [is] the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context . . . finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment . . . soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been […]


Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In last week’s Technical Update, I discussed the potential for the S&P 500 to hit 2700 by Christmas. To wit: “The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the ‘smell of tax reform’ in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end.   […]


The Mean-Reverting History Of Profit Growth

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important.  While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns. Yesterday, Doug Kass penned an interesting […]


This Is The “Dilemma From Hell Dacing CBs”

We present some somber reading on this holiday Sunday from Macquarie Capital’s Viktor Shvets, who in this exclusive to ZH readers excerpt from his year-ahead preview, explains why central banks can no longer exit the “doomsday highway” as a result of a “dilemma from hell” which no longer has a practical, real-world resolution, entirely as […]


This Is The “Dilemma From Hell Facing CBs”

We present some somber reading on this holiday Sunday from Macquarie Capital’s Viktor Shvets, who in this exclusive to ZH readers excerpt from his year-ahead preview, explains why central banks can no longer exit the “doomsday highway” as a result of a “dilemma from hell” which no longer has a practical, real-world resolution, entirely as […]


BofA’s Apocalyptic Forecast: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts In H1 2018, War May Follow

Having predicted back in July that the “most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months“, i.e., now, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was – in retrospect – wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few days). However, having stuck to his underlying logic – which was as sound then as […]


“How To Forecast Markets”: A Departing Top JPMorgan Strategist Reveals What He Learned After 30 Years

One of the most popular JPMorgan analysts, traders and commentators, Jan Loeys, head of global asset strategy and author of the weekly “The JPMorgan View” piece is moving on (to a different, non-client facing part of the company), and is using his last weekly address to JPM clients to recap the main lessons he has […]


Bill Blain: “We Are Approaching Levels Of Optimism Last Seen In The Days Of The Dot.Com Bubble”

“Blain’s Morning Porridge”, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners “Comrades come rally, let the last fight let us win….. for though they offer us concessions, change will not come from above..” Paradise or not, how much hotter can markets get? Divided opinion here in the office this morning.. Stirring the pot is the BBC’s […]


The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble

Two weeks ago, we discussed the recent report from Artemis Capital Management, “Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk – Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987”, authored by Christopher Cole. See “In the Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken…The Market Is”. The full report can be accessed here. Perhaps because we posted […]


“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moments Dynamics

Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time in 2012 that markets “lost their capacity to deal with uncertainty.” It was also […]


“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moment Dynamics

Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time in 2012 that markets “lost their capacity to deal with uncertainty.” It was also […]


Keeping A Close Eye On Momentum In The US Equity Market

Authored by Steven Vanelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, Over the last 20 days, the US equity is showing early signs of exhaustion, and momentum is beginning to weaken. In the following charts, we’ll highlight the various technical measures we calculate each day to illustrate the early turn in momentum. Our KLSU DM Americas Index […]


Are Markets Being Driven by Fun-Durr-Mentals?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, This past weekend, I discussed how the current rally since the election has been based on “hopes” for tax cuts and tax reforms as there was little evidence currently to suggest it was based on fundamental underpinnings. To wit: “Do not be mistaken, this ‘rally’ IS all about tax cuts. Despite many […]


Is Capitalism Dead Or Merely Dying?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, New Zealand’s new prime minister Jacinda Ardern calls capitalism a blatant failure. Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete. Mathematics professor Bruce Boghosian claims that without redistribution of wealth, our market economy […]


In The Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken… The Market Is”

Authored by Christopher Cole via Artemis Capital Management, Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and […]