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Bitcoin Collapse, Equity ‘Flash Crash’, & The Fed Loses Control: Saxo’s ‘Outrageous Predictions’ For 2018

Via Saxo Bank: We’ve delved deep again this year in penning our annual list of 10 Outrageous Predictions. As usual, we roam the world and ride roughshod over consensus in sniffing out these supposedly highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential – events that could have tremendous implications if they come to pass. Enjoy! 2017 was […]


Tax Euphoria Fades As Tech Rout Spreads

One look at S&P futures this morning reveals an unchanged market, however it is again the violent sector rotation that is taking place behind the scenes that is the real story, with defensive sectors real estate, retail, food, utilities outperforming while investors continue to bail and book profits on tech stocks after sharp gains since […]


Frontrunning: December 4

Stock futures jump after Senate approves tax bill (Reuters) Tax Bill Marked by Blinding Speed (WSJ) Corporate Winners and Losers in the GOP Tax Bill (BBG) Flynn’s Guilty Plea Sparks Clashing Interpretations (WSJ) Irish border deal reported settled as May meets Juncker (Reuters) Houthi radio says ex-president Saleh killed in Yemen fighting, no confirmation (Reuters) […]


Tax Deal Sends US Futures Soaring To New All Time High; Dollar, Yields, Global Stocks Follow

The dollar jumped the most in two weeks, pushing Treasury yields as much as 6bps higher (before easing back) with US equity indexes primed for a another record-setting day after Senate Republicans approved a reduction in the corporate tax rate as part of a sweeping overhaul, giving a boost to President Donald Trump’s stimulus plans. […]


Great News From McKinsey: Robots Will Take 800 Million Jobs Worldwide By 2030

Stories about robots taking over from humans have become prevalent. Recently we’ve written about a new Manhattan Shake Shack replacing human cashiers with robots, killer robots (a.k.a. lethal autonomous weapons systems), a Californian real estate company replacing commission-based human agents with robots, a cocaine workshop in Brazil with robots packing 150,000 baggies a day and […]


“This Just Feels Like Death”: Analysts Flee Research Positions Amid MiFID II Changes

For the past couple of months, we’ve frequently shared our views that Europe’s MiFID II regulations, which force investment banks to charge for equity research instead of “giving it away” in return for trading commissions, could be a wake up call for 1,000’s of highly paid research analysts who were about to have their true […]


Why Populism Isn’t Going Away

Authored by Ronald-Peter Stoferle via The Mises Institute, The vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump has baffled the main stream and the establishment. Most market participants and observers didn't believe ex ante that they were possible, and as a result were completely surprised when the unexpected happened. Ever since the term populism […]


Frontrunning: November 10

Trump Declares New World-Trade Order (WSJ) Trump brings tough trade message in vision for Asia (Reuters) Trump Offers Trade to Asian Nations But Only If They Play Fair (BBG) Flynn Probed Over Alleged Plan to Send Back Turkish Cleric (WSJ) GOP’s Dueling Tax Overhauls Struggle to Pass a Key Red Ink Test (BBG) Trump’s CNN […]


Nickel Price Surging As Hype Escalates During LME Week

It’s LME Week and there’s cause for celebration in metal markets. European mining stocks rose to a 4-year high as the nickel price surged more than 5% intraday to a two-year high and rose by the daily limit in Shanghai trading today. Metals used in electronic vehicles, like lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel, are hot […]


How Much Is Equity Research Actually Worth? Probably Less Than You Thought

Over the past several months, investment banks all across Europe have scrambled to put a price tag on their equity research after years of giving it way as a ‘freebie’ in return for trading commissions. Of course, for wall street’s titans of finance, you know, the same guys who will look you straight in the […]


Would You Pay $2,500 For One Hour With An Equity Analyst? This I-Bank Seems To Think So…

Wall Street equity analysts are paid ‘yuge’ salaries to employee the finance skills they picked up from their business school professors to value various corporate securities and asset-backed securitization structures, among other things.  And while their valuations of those securities have served as a frequent source of comic relief for many of us over the […]


Macquarie Identifies The Winners And Losers Of MiFID II

Macquarie’s equity research team has just offered up a valuable economics lesson which seems to perfectly, if inconveniently, explain why their business model is doomed by the upcoming implementation of MiFID II.  So what happens when you compete in a ‘slightly’ fragmented market (see below) to sell a highly commoditized product to a customer that […]


China’s Shadow-Lending Ecosystem Could Be As Large As $40 Trillion, PBOC Guesses

Authored by Deep Throat at Deep Throat Blog Today, I'd like to take some time to revisit a couple of related topics that we first started discussing a few years ago. I am, of course, referring to the burgeoning increases in China's Debt levels, Shadow Bank Assets (loans) and M2, along with a high-level analysis […]


Forget The Hype: Public Infrastructure Generates Waste, Fraud And Abuse

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. Economic policy is subject to fads and fashions. The most recent economic-policy fad is public infrastructure. Its advocates include progressives on the “left” and populists on the “right.” It is an undefined hallmark of President Trump’s economic program. They all […]


World Stocks Hit Fresh Record High As Irma, Korea Rally Continues; Pounds Surges

World stocks hit new record highs on Tuesday amid a continuation of Monday’s risk-on theme which unleashed a dramatic relief rally on easing North Korea tensions and signs that Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared (which according to Keynesians should be GDP negative). The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.2%, hitting the highest on […]