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11 Of 19 Bear Market Indicators Have Now Been Triggered: BofA

Two weeks ago, Bank of America tripped recession-watcher alarms, when it announced out that one of its surest bear-market indicators, one which has never had a false negative, had just been triggered. As we said at the time, according to BofA’s Savita Subramanian in November the S&P 500’s three-month earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) fell […]


The Rude Awakening Of Slumbering Bulls

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Near the end of each year, Barron’s magazine highlights the outlooks for the next year from 10, or so, Wall Street strategists. As noted recently by Sentiment Trader: “Strategists are a little more optimistic than the Big Money was, forecasting a gain of around 7% for the S&P 500 […]


The “Exit” Problem

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Last week, I discussed the issue of “bubbles” in the market. To wit: “Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.”   Hold on…don’t start screaming “heretic” and building gallows just yet. Let me explain.   Stock market bubbles are driven by speculation, greed, and emotional biases – therefore […]


Everyone In The (Stock Market) Pool?

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, The percentage of households’  financial assets currently invested in stocks has jumped to levels exceeded only by the 2000 bubble. Updating one of our favorite data series from the Federal Reserve’s latest Z.1 Release, we see that in the 3rd quarter, household and nonprofit’s stock holdings jumped to 36.3% of their […]


One Of Bank of America’s “Guaranteed Bear Market” Indicators Was Just Triggered

It is undisputed that the last 2 quarters have demonstrated an impressive jump in corporate earnings growth, if mostly due to a beneficial base effect from plunging 2016 earnings which pushed them below levels reached in 2014. And naturally, this rebound has been more than priced into a market which has seen substantial multiple expansion […]


Record Calm Stock Market Gets A Shock

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, After a record run of muted movement, will recent volatility send negative shock waves through stock market? The recent uptick in stock volatility has some investors on edge (OK, it is mostly just financial news editors on edge). The truth is, while volatility over the past week has seen an increase, […]


Stocks Rebound As Gartman Turns Bearish

For a second, it seemed that the broad risk-off wave that started in Asia, swept Europe and pressured US futures was here to stay. And then, the signal all algos had been waiting for emerged: Gartman just flip-flopped back to bearish. From Gartman’s latest letter: STOCK PRICES ARE DOWN AND THEY ARE DOWN SHARPLY…. EVERYWHERE […]


Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Since the election, markets have accelerated the pace of the advance as shown in the chart below. The advance has had two main story lines to support the bullish narrative. It’s an earnings recovery story, and; It’s all about tax cuts. There is much to debate about the earnings […]


Tax Euphoria Fades As Tech Rout Spreads

One look at S&P futures this morning reveals an unchanged market, however it is again the violent sector rotation that is taking place behind the scenes that is the real story, with defensive sectors real estate, retail, food, utilities outperforming while investors continue to bail and book profits on tech stocks after sharp gains since […]


Stock Market Acceleration Reaches Terminal Stage

Via KesslerCompanies.com, Secular stock-market bullish trends tend to accelerate as they mature. The last three big bull moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average look very similar and suggest a near-term major correction. See below: DotCom Bubble: Global Financial Crisis: 'Everything' Bubble:   It's different this time though. http://WarMachines.com


Great (Stock) Expectations

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, Consumers’ expectations for stock market gains have never been higher – or more assured. Since the August stock market low, bulls have had it pretty good. Rally participation has been excellent, as has price structure for the most part. Outside of a textbook successful test of The Most Important Level In […]


The Most Important Level In The Stock Market

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, **The following post was originally issued to The Lyons Share members on November 9, 2017. The Value Line Geometric Composite proceeded to undergo a textbook, successful test of “The Most Important Level In The Stock Market” and subsequent bounce to new highs. See the bottom of the post for an updated […]


The Silence Of The Bears

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com, The silence of the bears is deafening. And who can blame them? The last 2 years have been absolutely brutal for any fans of price discovery, volatility and anything analytical mattering. Nothing matters. Be it divergences, valuations, earnings misses, slowing data, yield curve, equal weight, internals, catastrophes in nature, […]


Gartman Covers His Short

Five days ago, on November 16, upon reading the latest Gartman letter, we issued our usual warning: “For the bears out there the wisest thing to do may be to just step away for a bit, and certainly until Gartman’s already underwater position, is stopped out.” The reason: in the same letter, “world-renowned commodity guru” […]


What We Can Expect For Gold Prices in the Wake of the Hurricane Season

The recent spate of back-to-back hurricanes in the US is expected to compound the economic damage of an already over-extended debt. As the stock market braces for a correction, traders are inclined to sell out of riskier stock markets and take refuge in safe havens like gold. Although it will take months for the impact […]