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Yes, Virginia, There Is A “Santa Rally”

Authord by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Yes, Virgina, There Is A Santa Claus Every year, at this time, I republish the story of 8-year Virginia O’Hanlon who asked the most important of questions. I encourage you to read it as it reminds us of the importance, meaning and the “Spirit” of the Christmas season.  *  […]

11 Of 19 Bear Market Indicators Have Now Been Triggered: BofA

Two weeks ago, Bank of America tripped recession-watcher alarms, when it announced out that one of its surest bear-market indicators, one which has never had a false negative, had just been triggered. As we said at the time, according to BofA’s Savita Subramanian in November the S&P 500’s three-month earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) fell […]

2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]

Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In last week’s Technical Update, I discussed the potential for the S&P 500 to hit 2700 by Christmas. To wit: “The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the ‘smell of tax reform’ in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end.   […]

Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via Finanz und Wirtschaft, James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has […]

The “Exit” Problem

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Last week, I discussed the issue of “bubbles” in the market. To wit: “Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.”   Hold on…don’t start screaming “heretic” and building gallows just yet. Let me explain.   Stock market bubbles are driven by speculation, greed, and emotional biases – therefore […]

One Of Bank of America’s “Guaranteed Bear Market” Indicators Was Just Triggered

It is undisputed that the last 2 quarters have demonstrated an impressive jump in corporate earnings growth, if mostly due to a beneficial base effect from plunging 2016 earnings which pushed them below levels reached in 2014. And naturally, this rebound has been more than priced into a market which has seen substantial multiple expansion […]

Mauldin: The Bonfire Burns On

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, “Life invests itself with inevitable conditions, which the unwise seek to dodge, which one and another brags that he does not know, that they do not touch him; but the brag is on his lips, the conditions are in his soul. If he escapes them in one part they […]

“There Were No Calls, That’s Absolutely Crazy”: How The Stock Market Died

Something unexpected happened on the market’s relentless trek to all time highs: the market died. At least that is the impression one gets from walking around Wall Street’s formerly busy trading desks (certainly the formerly biggest trading floor in the world, that of UBS, now hauntingly empty) where these days one can hear a pin […]

“Investing Is Not A Competition… It’s A Game Of Long-Term Survival”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Melt-Up Gains Traction Back in November, just following the election of President Trump, I wrote about the market entering into potentially the final “melt-up” phase of the cyclical bull market. However, while economic and fundamental realities HAVE NOT changed since the election, markets are pricing in expected impacts of changes […]

How To Survive And Thrive In A “Zlatan Ibrahimovic” Market

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com,   REPORTER: “Who will win the World Cup playoff?”   ZLATAN: “Only God knows who will go through.”   REPORTER: “It’s hard to ask him.”   ZLATAN: “You’re talking to him.”    REPORTER: “What did you get your wife for her birthday?”   ZLATAN: “Nothing. She already has Zlatan.”  […]

Exactly How Many Warnings Do You Need?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of […]

“Bulls Have Become Completely Desensitized To Risk”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Review & Update Two weeks ago, I noted: “I have a sneaky suspicion that when I update the Fed Balance Sheet reinvestment analysis next week, shown below, we are going to find a substantial, well-timed, reinvestment by the Central Bank. Wanna bet?  Well, here is the updated chart of […]

What The Buffett Indicator Is Really Predicting

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Every so often an article is produced that is so misleading that it must be addressed. The latest is from Sol Palha via the Huffington Post entitled: “Buffett Indicator Is Predicting A Stock Market Crash: Pure Nonsense.”  Sol jumps right in with both feet stating: “Insanity equates to doing the […]

Real Vision’s “Killer Charts” For Q3 2017

How do you spot a market top? Is risk being mispriced? What is the greatest macro opportunity of the next decade? These were some of the questions Real Vision asked as part of the latest quarterly deck compilation of so-called “Killer Charts”. Reaching out to its close group of financial experts, Real Vision Publications has […]