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In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Blew Up The Treasury Market

Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding liquidity strain in global markets, manifesting itself in a dramatic widening in FX basis swaps, which – in this particular case – has flowed through in the forward discount for USDJPY spiking from around […]


In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Just Blew Up The Treasury Market

Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding liquidity strain in global markets, manifesting itself in a dramatic widening in FX basis swaps, which – in this particular case – has flowed through in the forward discount for USDJPY spiking from around […]


To Avoid Liquidation Panic, HNA Assures Deutsche Shareholders It’s A “Long-Term Investor”

The notoriously acquisitive Chinese conglomerate HNA – which recently had a sharp falling out with Beijing resulting in a margin call "shocksave" – is facing a serious cash crunch in 2018 as nearly a quarter of its $100 billion in debt – a large chunk of which was accumulated during a multi-year buying spree that […]


Twelve Days Of Christmas Fed’s QE Gave To Me – by Michael Carino, Greenwich Endeavors

On the 12th day of Christmas Fed’s QE Gave To Me: TWELVE Fed Districts Dancing ELEVEN Bubbles Bubbling – (11 – Crypto Currencies like the recently famous soon to infamous Bitcoin, Bonds (every one of them), Stocks, Intra-day leverage from high volume trading, Emerging Markets, Short Volatility Trades in a temporarily suppressed volatility environment, Liquidity […]


Someone Just Made $60 Million Betting That The Crowd Is Wrong

Over the weekend we warned that just as everyone was convinced that the yield curve can only flatten from here, and was positioned massively on the long side of the 30Y future, the opposite was about to happen, and in a tweet highlighting the record net spec long positioning in 30Y futures, we said “here […]


Bond Bears Beware As Ag Prices Hit Record Low

Long-end bond yields are lower and the front-end higher once again this morning as the US Treasury yield curve continues to confound by flattening. Bloomberg macro strategist Mark Cudmore suspects there is more to come… for one simple reason, so often overlooked… Via Bloomberg, Cheaper eats are great, but maybe not if you’re one of […]


UBS Unveils Its Top 5 Themes And 19 Trades For 2018

Coming in a little late to the game, UBS today released its top 5 themes and 19 trades for 2018. Not surprising from the bank whose base case S&P forecast is 2,900 one year from now (with potential upside to 3,200), and who just told CNBC that “valuations are still somewhat cheap”, the bank is […]


Foreigners Bought A Record Amount Of Japanese Stocks, Just Before The Nikkei Snapped

There was something poetically ironic about last night’s 800+ point crash in the Nikkei… … which was saved in the last minutes of trading by what was rumored to be the latest blatant BOJ intervention: it took place right after the month in which a record number of foreigners rushed into Japanese stocks, chasing the […]


Dow 500,000?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I genuinely admire Morgan Housel. I think he is a brilliant and talented writer. However, he sent out a tweet on Friday that really struck a chord with me. If you're less than 50 years old and the market returns at least 5% a year on average the Dow […]


Mauldin: “4 Charts Why You Should Run Away From The S&P 500”

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, My friend James Montier, now at GMO, and his associate Matt Kadnar have written a compelling piece on why passive investors should avoid the S&P 500. Their essay argues that the forward growth potential of the S&P 500 is significantly lower than that of other opportunities, especially emerging markets. […]