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Financial Times Survey: Banks’ Brexit Relocations By March 2019 Much Lower Than Feared

In the run-up to the recent agreement on phase I of Brexit, there was mixed news on the extent to which jobs in the City of London would be relocated to other European hubs, primarily Frankfurt. On one hand, we discussed the meeting between US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, and executives of JPM, Goldman, HSBC […]


Full Preview Of Janet Yellen’s Last Ever Rate Hike

In previewing today's FOMC decision, which will also be Janet Yellen's last rate hike decision and press conference before she is replaced by Jay Powell, there is a TL/DR version, which is summarized by the chart below and which shows that according to the market, the probability of a rate hike today is 100%… which […]


Frontrunning: December 12

Parties Make Final Push Ahead of Dramatic Alabama Senate Race (WSJ) Oil hits two-and-a-half year high on pipeline shutdown, stocks take breather (Reuters) Alabama drama nears an explosive end (The Hill) Moore, Jones Expose Rural-Urban Divide That Defines Alabama Race (BBG) The Force Behind Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise: Millions of Asian Investors (WSJ) Austrian Explosion Rattles […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Frontrunning: November 30

The thinking behind Kim Jong Un’s ‘madness’ (Reuters); U.S. warns North Korean leadership will be ‘utterly destroyed’ in case of war (Reuters) Senate tax drama enters complicated end-game gambit (Reuters) Corporate Tax Rate in Flux as Senate Prepares to Vote (WSJ) The Senate Tax Bill Has Something for Every Republican to Hate (BBG) Bitcoin Mania: […]


Frankfurt: 20 New Residential Skyscrapers Are Being Built To Meet Brexit Demand

Last month, we discussed how Frankfurt was emerging as the clear winner. When UBS staff were asked to rank which city they would prefer to be relocated to, their options were Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Madrid. Our top picks would have been Paris and Dublin, which didn’t even make the short list. On 19 October 2017, […]


US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday’s blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11, following Powell’s deregulation promise, ahead of today’s 2nd estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP which is expected to be revised up. […]


UK Banks Can Withstand “Disorderly Brexit” But Need Additional £6BN; $35 Trillion In Derivatives Affected

For the first time since it (belatedly) began conducting stress tests in 2014, none of the UK’s major banks need to raise additional capital. More importantly, the Bank of England and the system could withstand a disorderly Brexit. As Bloomberg recaps, "the stress-test scenario therefore encompasses a wide range of U.K. macroeconomic risks that could […]


Frontrunning: November 21

U.S. sues to stop AT&T buying Time Warner, says would hike rates (Reuters) Merkel Tells Her Rivals: Back Me or Face Voters (BBG) German Turmoil Threatens Europe (WSJ) European Giants Are Making a Bad Month Worse for Stock Market (BBG) Taylor Swift Is Building a Wall (VF) Balance of Power: Putin Reaches for Prize with […]


New Gold-Backed Debit Card Launched In Partnership With Lloyds Bank & MasterCard

In recent years, there has been a major debate about the respective merits of gold versus Bitcoin, even though many, not all, gold bulls are also supporters of the latter. Gold advocates generally view favourably Bitcoin’s inherent characteristics of decentralisation, finite supply and ability to operate (so far) outside of the usual interference by western […]


New Gold-Backed Debit Card Launched In Partnership With MasterCard

In recent years, there has been a major debate about the respective merits of gold versus Bitcoin, even though many, not all, gold bulls are also supporters of the latter. Gold advocates generally view favourably Bitcoin’s inherent characteristics of decentralisation, finite supply and ability to operate (so far) outside of the usual interference by western […]


ECB Preview: Here’s What Draghi Will Announce Today

Today’s ECB meeting is expected to be one of the most important in recent years: Mario Draghi has signaled, and is widely expected to announce a blueprint of what the central bank’s QE tapering will look like beyond 2017, and while no actual tightening will be implemented – either via rates of asset purchases – […]


ECB Preview: Here’s What Draghi Will Announce On Thursday

Thursday’s ECB meeting is expected to be one of the most important in recent years: Mario Draghi has signaled, and is widely expected to announce a blueprint of what the central bank’s QE tapering will look like beyond 2017, and while no actual tightening will be implemented – either via rates of asset purchases – […]


Bond Yields Break Out Around The World As Japan’s Record Stock Rally Ends

S&P futures are fractionally in the red while traders await President Trump’s pick for Fed chair and more clues on the fate of tax reform; Asian stocks slide, European shares are little changed ahead of tomorrow’s ECB tapering announcement as US 10Y yields finally break out of their multi-month range below 2.40%…   … pushing […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: ECB Taper, Q3 GDP And Durables

The main even this week will be the ECB’s taper announcement on Thursday where consensus expects the ECB to announce a QE extension of €30bn per month for 9 month until Sep-18, with potential extension after. Net purchases between now and Dec-17 will continue at €60bn per month as planned. To cope with rate hike […]