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The View From 2017’s Bridge: What Clive Hale Learned This Year

Authored by Clive Hale via The View From The Bridge blog, As long time readers will know we do not put much credence in end of year forecasts; nor in fact forecasts in general; the Fed and the Met Office being stand out examples. As an alternative to what is going to happen in 2018 […]


Albert Edwards: “Clients No Longer Care About Overvaluation; They Are Concerned About Triggers And Timing”

“How do you know when an asset price rise has turned into a bubble?” That’s the rhetorical question Albert Edwards leads his today’s Global Strategy Weekly note, and responds that in the non- virtual world, valuation is often a good starting point. “A bubble can also be identified by the steepness and persistence of any […]


Weekend Reading: Recession Risk Hidden In Tax Bill

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Since the election, equity bulls have been pinning their hopes on “tax cuts” as the needed injection to support currently elevated stock prices. Stocks have advanced sharply since the election on these expectations, and while earnings have recovered, primarily due to the rise in oil prices, whatever economic growth […]


Weekend Reading: Keeping You Awake At Night

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In her last testimony before Congress as head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen made a curious statement: “I would simply say that I am very worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt trajectory. Our current debt-to-GDP ratio of about 75 percent is not frightening but it’s also […]


The Mean-Reverting History Of Profit Growth

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important.  While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns. Yesterday, Doug Kass penned an interesting […]


Francesco Filia: The World’s Twin Asset Bubbles Could Collapse Under Their Own Weight

In this week's MacroVoices podcast, Erik Townsend interviews Francesco Filia, a fund manager at Fasanara Capital. After exchanging pleasantries, Townsend begins the interview by asking Filia, an analysts who's widely regarded for his research about how post-crisis monetary policy has impacted distorted markets, about the different metrics he uses to determine whether a certain asset […]


Weekend Reading: You Have Been Warned

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Investors aren’t paying attention. There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week. On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index […]


Why America’s Retail Apocalypse Could Accelerate Even More In 2018

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, Is the retail apocalypse in the United States about to go to a whole new level?  That is a frightening thing to consider, because the truth is that things are already quite bad.  We have already shattered the all-time record for store closings in a single […]


‘Hindenburg Omen’ Meets ‘Titanic Syndrome’ For The First Time Since October 2007

Two weeks ago we warned that a cluster of the infamous Hindenburg Omens was forming. Since then stocks have suffered their biggest drop in 3 months… However, the Hindenberg Omen is not exactly flawless and has false-alerted a number of times in the last few years. Which is why, John Hussman has adapted the signals […]


Weekend Reading: It’s The Debt, Stupid

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As I noted last Friday, the recently approved budget was an anathema to any fiscally conservative policy. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated: “Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, they choose the path of gimmicks, debt, […]


The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble

Two weeks ago, we discussed the recent report from Artemis Capital Management, “Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk – Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987”, authored by Christopher Cole. See “In the Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken…The Market Is”. The full report can be accessed here. Perhaps because we posted […]


“This Is The Broadest Episode Of Extreme Equity Market Overvaluation In History”

Excerpted from John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment, Market valuations, on these measures, presently approach or exceed the 1929 and 2000 extremes, placing U.S. equity market valuations at the most offensive levels in history. Indeed, with median valuations on these measures now more than 2.7 times their historical norms, there is strong reason to expect a […]


Weekend Reading: Will Tax Reform Deliver As Expected?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As I noted last Friday, the recently approved budget was an anathema to any fiscally conservative policy. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated: “Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, they choose the path of gimmicks, debt, […]


“You Get Nothing” – World’s Largest Insurer Warns US Stocks Offer “No Returns” For The Next Decade

There will be "almost no prospective returns" from U.S. stocks over the next decade because the market is fully valued following years of gains, according to the global strategist at Allianz Global Investors, which manages $569 billion. As Bloomberg reports, low interest rates and bond purchases by central banks have left cash and many other […]


Dow 500,000?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I genuinely admire Morgan Housel. I think he is a brilliant and talented writer. However, he sent out a tweet on Friday that really struck a chord with me. If you're less than 50 years old and the market returns at least 5% a year on average the Dow […]