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Initial Jobless Claims Crash Back To 44-Year Lows

After a brief disturbance due to the hurricanes this fall, initial jobless claims have collapsed back to 225k (down 11k last week), hovering near their lowest level since 1973… Update: Southbay Reserach notes that the main driver behind the drop in claims is California which saw a one-week drop of -6K (not seasonally adjusted). Typically […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most Since 2016’s Growth Scare

Ignoring the storm-driven aberrations, this week's 10k jump in initial jobless claims to 249k signals a notable regime shift in the labor market. For the first time since 2016's growth scare, there are more Americans opening jobless claims than last year… In fact there are over 4% more people on initial jobless claims than this […]


Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, […]


Previewing The September “Hurricane-Disrupted” Jobs Report

Tomorrow’s hurricane-affected September jobs report will be… confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and […]