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Bank Of America: “This Is A Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is “paradox“, as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees. A “paradox” was on full display in […]


The Rude Awakening Of Slumbering Bulls

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Near the end of each year, Barron’s magazine highlights the outlooks for the next year from 10, or so, Wall Street strategists. As noted recently by Sentiment Trader: “Strategists are a little more optimistic than the Big Money was, forecasting a gain of around 7% for the S&P 500 […]


Crypto-Cornucopia Part 3 – “A System With No Justice, No Order, No Rules, & No Predictability”

Authored by Dr. D via Raul Ilargi Meijer's The Automatic Earth blog, Part 1 "Bitcoin Is A Trust Machine" here. Part 2 "This System Is Garbage, How Do We Fix It?" here. The money, the unaccountable, uninhibited release of tokens can do more than just buy centuries of hard labor in seconds, it‘s also a […]


Banks Issue Last Minute Warning About Risks Of Bitcoin Futures, Ask Regulator For Review

As we countdown to the launch of bitcoin futures trading on the CBOE (10 December) and CME (18 December), the big banks – via the Futures Industry Association – have suddenly got cold feet about the risks. We don't blame them, somebody's going to get hurt, the only question is who. The banks are worried […]


The Mean-Reverting History Of Profit Growth

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important.  While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns. Yesterday, Doug Kass penned an interesting […]


Fed’s Kashkari Responds To Zero Hedge: “The Fed’s Job Is Not To Protect Investors”

Former Goldmanite and current Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari, conducted another #AskNeel session on Twitter where the dovish FOMC voter (he was the only one to dissent to the Fed’s rate hike decision earlier this year) received numerous questions. Among them was the following one from Zero Hedge: #AskNeel You have admitted the Fed has […]


China Regulators Seek To Calm Mania For HK Stocks As Plunge Protectors Make An Appearance

The Chinese authorities’ efforts to contain leverage and reduce risk across the nation’s financial system took another step forward overnight with the ban on approvals for mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% of their portfolios to Hong Kong stocks. This looks like a response to surging capital flows into the territory from […]


David Stockman Derides The Delirious Dozen Of 2017

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, We have previously noted the massive market cap inflation and then stupendous collapse of the Delirious Dozen of 2000. The latter included Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, Intel, GE, Yahoo, AIG and Juniper Networks – plus four others which didn't survive (Lucent, WorldCom, Global Crossing and Nortel). Together they represented a classic blow-off […]


The Mother Of All Irrational Exuberance

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, You could almost understand the irrational exuberance of 1999-2000. That's because everything was seemingly coming up roses, meaning that cap rates arguably had rational room to rise. But eventually the mania lost all touch with reality; it succumbed to an upwelling of madness that at length made even Alan Greenspan look […]


Kolanovic Asks “How Close Are We To The Market Top” And Answers

“How close are we to the market top?” While that is and always has been the question on every trader and investor’s lips, it is also what an increasingly greater number of more and more nervous JPMorgan clients wants to know, especially those who, according to JPM head quant Marko Kolanovic – want to protect […]


FOMC Minutes Preview: Beware A Dovish Surprise By A “Very Uncertain” Yellen

The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used […]


“Very Close To Irrational Exuberance”: Asian Equities Break Above All-Time High As Hang Seng Clears 30,000

Following the new all-time high in US equities, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index broke through its November 2007 peak to make an all-time high in Wednesday’s trading session. This was something we noted could happen yesterday in “SocGen: Asian Equities Are So Awesome, A China Minsky Moment Is ‘Manageable”. The dollar weakened slightly after outgoing […]


What If The “Exuberance” Is “Irrational”? Then Hold On To Your Hats…

As discussed earlier, Goldman’s entire S&P500 price forecast for 2018 and the next three years is based on two things: tax reform passing, but more broadly, something that David Kostin dubbed “Rational Exuberance”, to wit: “Rational exuberance” best describes our forecast for the trajectory of the S&P 500 during the next several years. Earnings drive […]


Goldman Bets On “Rational Exuberance”: Unveils Its S&P Price Targets, Sees Bull Market Lasting Until 2020

Just days after Barclays released its 2018 equity outlook with the title “Rational Exuberance”… … Goldman’s David Kostin decided that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and in presenting his S&P price target* for 2018 (and 2019 and 2020), and has named his preview report the same: We footnoted price target, because once again […]


Bank Of America: “This Is A Clear Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

The latest monthly Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America confirmed what recent market actions have already demonstrated, namely that, as BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett explained, there is a “big market conviction in Goldilocks leading to capitulation into risk assets” while at the same time sending Fund managers’ cash levels to a 4-year […]