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What Will Drive The Next Oil Price Crash?

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, As we roll into 2018, analysts and investors are more optimistic that the oil market will further tighten next year and support higher oil prices, but rising U.S. shale production will likely cap any significant price gains. On the demand side, expectations are that global economic growth will support […]


OPEC vs IEA: Who’s Right On Oil Prices?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, Last week, the International Energy Agency made a lot of OPEC brows furrow when it warned that 2018 may not be a very happy new year for the cartel. U.S. shale supply, the IEA said in its December Oil Market Report, is set to grow more than OPEC has […]


The Geopolitical Video Game

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog, The way the world economy is manipulated by world leaders is a little like a giant video game. The object of the game is to keep the world economy growing, without too many adverse consequences to particular members of the world economy. We represent this need […]


The Coming Economic Downturn In Canada

Authored by Deb Shaw via MarketsNow.com, Canadian GDP growth has outperformed this year, helping the Canadian dollar As GDP growth slows and the Bank of Canada turns neutral, catalysts turning negative Crude oil and real estate look set for a downturn, with negative implications for the currency Given its natural resource-based economy, Canada is a […]


Futures Jump, Global Stocks Rebound From Longest Losing Streak Of The Year

After five consecutive daily losses on the MSCI world stock index and seven straight falls in Europe, there was finally a bounce, as investors returned to global equity markets in an optimistic mood on Thursday, sending US futures higher after several days of losses as global stocks rebounded following a Chinese commodity-driven rout.  The House […]


Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards

Authored by Matt Barrie via Medium.com, Co-authored with Craig Tindale. I recently watched the federal treasurer, Scott Morrison, proudly proclaim that Australia was in “surprisingly good shape”. Indeed, Australia has just snatched the world record from the Netherlands, achieving its 104th quarter of growth without a recession, making this achievement the longest streak for any […]


Global Stocks Tumble, Asia Plunges On Chinese Commodity Carnage

The euphoria of the past month has ended with a thud and BTFDers are strangely missing as the commodity chill out of China (which overnight became full blown carnage), has unleashed a global risk-off phase ahead of today’s critical CPI data, resulting in broad and sharp selling across global markets, as European stocks followed declines […]


Ruble, Real Tumble As Oil Slumps On Weaker IEA Outlook

WTI Crude is tumbling this morning, breaking down below $56 following a monthly report Tuesday from the International Energy Agency that said 2017 price gains along with milder-than-normal winter weather are slowing demand growth. This drop is weighing on oil-producers with the Ruble and Real dropping most… The IEA reduced its demand estimate for next year by […]


IEA Pours Cold Water On OPEC Optimism, Warns Global Oil Demand Shrinking

Pouring cold water on yesterday’s optimistic demand forecast projected by OPEC, which projected global crude demand growth to rise by 1.5mm b/d in 2018, this morning the International Energy Agency warned that the crude oil price rally could be short-lived because, contrary to OPEC’s expectations, global oil demand will be weaker than expected this year […]


Hedgies Have Never Been ‘Longer’ The Energy Complex As Analysts Raise Oil Price Forecasts (Again)

With WTI prices holding at 6-month highs around $54 (and Brent at $60), Reuters' John Kemp notes that hedge funds have never, ever been more bullishly positioned in the entire energy complex. Hedge Funds have accumulated a record 1.189 billion bbl of long positions in the five major petroleum contracts (Brent, WTI (x2), RBOB, HO)… […]


Global Stocks Hit New Record High, Dollar Mixed After Dovish Fed

In a trend observed every day this week, S&P futures are slightly in the red ahead of a post-open ramp with the VIX rising to 9.91, as Asian shares climb, European stocks are little changed. WTI crude pares recent gains, slipping below $51 after API showed an unexpected crude build. Earnings season launches with bank […]


Auto OEMs Plan To Flood Market With New Electric Car Models Despite Massive Losses

Last month we noted that Tesla really outdid itself in 2Q 2017 by posting a record cash burn of $1.2 billion, or roughly $13 million every single day.  Per the chart below, Tesla's Q2 cash burn was just a continuation of the company's money-losing trend that goes back at least 6 years and seems to […]


Global Stocks Pull Back From All Time Highs On Poor Chinese Data; All Eyes On CPI

Global stocks backed off from all time highs, and S&P futures are unchanged ahead of the much anticipated US CPI report, which is expected to break a streak of five consecutive misses, while eyeing disappointing overnight Chinese economic data which missed across the board. European stocks and Asian markets were also modestly in the red, […]


Late-Day Stock-Buying-Panic Brings Record Highs On Trump Tax Plan Hope

Hope is a strategy…   As Bloomberg notes, Treasuries fell and the dollar gained as talk of a tax-cut outline on lawmaker’s desks by September 25 revived hopes for the "Trump trade" amid speculation President Trump is adopting a more bipartisan approach in dealings with both Houses of Congress. Revival of the President’s fiscal agenda […]


IEA Forecasts Fastest Oil Demand Growth In Two Years

The International Energy Agency, which advises most major economies on energy policy, forecast that global oil demand will climb this year by the most in two years amid stronger-than-expected consumption in Europe and the U.S. although it was unclear just how this will offset recently fading demand by the two biggest marginal consumers, China and […]