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“Are Central Bankers About To Lose Control?” The WSJ Asks And Citi Answers

In an article published by the WSJ today, which was originally titled “Are Central Bankers About to Lose Control?” but after some shoulder taps was renamed to the far more neutral “Can Central Banks Keep Control of Interest Rates?” author Jon Sindreu looks at the current Goldilocks state of the market, in which global growth […]


“In The End, There Was Absurdity” – The Great Crash Of 2018?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen, op-ed via Huffington Post, Crises always take longer to arrive than you think, and then happen much quicker than they ought to. – Rudiger Dornbusch An eerie calm has taken over the world markets. Volatility is crashing, and economic and political shocks come and go without any noticeable effect on the […]


The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate […]


Riksbank Formally Ends QE But Pledges Continued Dovish Support For Bond Market

While the Riksbank left its repo rate unchanged at -0.5%, as expected, in its decision this morning, far more interesting was the Riksbank’s decision to formally end making new bond purchases, i.e., QE, after almost three years. However, in order to ensure a smooth transition, the Riksbank said the end of QE would take place […]


Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]


Are Bonds Really On The Run? Why One Trader Is Skeptical

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader. So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen’s FX strategist, […]


2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]


Tax Reform & The “Japanification” Of America

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On Friday, Kevin Brady of the House Ways and Means Committee was on my radio program discussing the “Tax Cuts & Jobs Act” bill which was released later in the day. Here are the details of the release he referenced in the interview. Of course, the real question is how are […]


Rising Interest Rates Starting To Bite

Submitted by Gary Evans of Global Macro Monitor We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 dividend yield this past week for the first […]


Bill Blain’s 2018 Outlook: “We Don’t Think 2018 Is Going To Be The End Of The World”

Via Bill Blain, It’s traditional to end the year with an outlook on what the next is likely to bring. We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new […]


Bill Blain: “I Have Never Seen So Many Extraordinary Events In One Year, And I’ve Been In Markets Since 1985!”

Via Bill Blain of Mint Partner, We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new MiFID regime – isn’t everyone? (US Readers…..) Our broad brush picture is a continuation […]


Pound Slides After BOE Holds Rates: Warns Q4 Economy “Slightly Softer”, Sees “Gradual And Limited” Rate Hikes

As previewed moments ago, the BOE decision was rather unexciting, and after its November rate hike – the first in a decade – which many speculated could be a “one and done”, the Bank of England unanimously kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected. The lack of dissenters meant this was the first time the […]


China Unexpectedly Hikes Rates Despite Disappointing Retail Sales Growth

China, somewhat unexpectedly, hikes rates this evening, minutes before dumping economic data that showed no major surprises other than a modest disappointment in retail sales growth. Of course, we had a suspicion that China might hike rates, as it has done in response to previous rates hikes by the Fed in 2017. So what time […]


Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via Finanz und Wirtschaft, James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has […]


Abracadabra – Uncovering The Fed’s ‘Magnificent Fraud’

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com, And so, as they say in the horror movies, it begins…! The unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Such an esoteric concept! Is there one in ten thousand of the millions of people who sit at desks all day long from sea to shining sea who have […]